Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), made multiple claims about the Nigerian economy while speaking at a rally in Delta State.
Claim I: Abubakar, who was vice-president from 1999 to 2007, claimed that “when the PDP was in power, Nigeria had the biggest economic growth until it became the biggest economy in Africa.”
Verification
Between 1999 and 2015, the PDP was the dominant political force in Nigeria. Olusegun Obasanjo served as president from 1999 to 2007 before handing the reins over to Umar Musa Yar’Adua, who served as president from 2007 to 2010 before passing away while in office.
Goodluck Jonathan, who was vice president to Yar’Adua, became president from 2010 to 2015. Muhammadu Buhari, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), won the 2015 election and has been president to date.
Under PDP’s leadership, the growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) was rapid; it went from 0.58% in 1999 to 5.02% in 2000 and as high as 15.33% in 2002.
Nigeria’s economy grew so rapidly that it became the largest in Africa in 2014. The growth rate is also attributed to the rebasing of the economic data to include more sectors.
The rebasing exercise pushed the country’s GDP by 89% and moved Nigeria up 12 places to become the 24th largest economy in the world—on par with Poland and Belgium and ahead of Argentina, Austria, and Iran.
Nigeria thus overtook South Africa as the largest on the continent.
When the All Progressives Congress (APC) took control of the country through Buhari’s government in 2015, the GDP fell to 2.7%, the lowest level in 16 years.
The state of economic growth under APC’s leadership was examined by the World Bank in its 2022 publication titled “A Better Future for All Nigerians: 2022 Nigeria Poverty Assessment.”
According to the report, “between 2000 and 2014, Nigeria enjoyed a period of sustained expansion, during which the economy grew by around 7 percent per year, outstripping the estimated annual population growth rate of 2.6 percent”.
“Yet real GDP growth dropped to 2.7 percent in 2015, then -1.6 percent in 2016, as the decline in global oil prices induced Nigeria’s first recession in almost two decades.
“Nigeria’s development progress has stagnated. Between 2001 and 2014, Nigeria was a rising star in West Africa, with an average growth rate of seven percent per year, and it ranked among the top 15 fastest-growing economies in the world.
“However, this trend ended abruptly in 2015, as oil prices fell, the security situation deteriorated, macroeconomic reforms were reversed, and economic policies became increasingly unpredictable.”
Verdict
The claim that Nigeria had the biggest economic growth under the leadership of the PDP until it became the biggest economy in Africa is TRUE.
Claim II: Atiku also claimed that “Nigeria had no problems with high inflation when PDP was in power.”
Verification:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which calculates the percentage change in the cost of goods and services consumed by households, is the most widely used indicator of inflation.
High inflation has been a persistent issue in Nigeria over the years, and the 16 years of the PDP administration were no exception. Inflation increased between 1999 and 2015, rising from 6.62% in 1999 to 18.87% in 2001, and the highest inflation index was in 2003 at 23.80%.
This data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria shows the fluctuating inflation rates from 1999 to 2022.
Verdict:
The claim that Nigeria had no problems with inflation when PDP was in power is FALSE.