On February 6, 2023, Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), was the guest at the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) dialogue with Nigerian Presidential candidates. You would recall that in January, Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP), and Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), were featured also at the interactive session.
While answering questions on the economy and how he intends to solve the economic issues in Nigeria, Peter Obi made some claims.
He said “Seven local governments in Niger state [are] under the control of bandits. I discussed with the present Governor. He can’t even go there, nobody goes there. Schools there, everything is shut down.”
Claim I
Seven Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Niger state are under the control of bandits.
Verification
In January 2022, Governor Sani Bello of Niger state revealed at the flag-off of the North-central campaign against out-of-school children in Minna that bandits and terrorists frequently attacked seven, out of the 25 local governments in the state. Even though the Governor did not specify the LGAs, Thisday reported that the local governments are Shiroro, Munya, Rafi, Magama, Mariga, Mashegu, and Wushishi.
However, the Federal and state government have intensified efforts towards curbing attacks in Niger state. It is therefore unclear the number of local governments under bandit in Niger state. However, one year after, the local governments under bandit control are no longer up to seven.
Data from The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a security project in partnership with CDD, shows that the military has carried out numerous raids to sweep the region and make it safer for Nigerians.
Verdict
Peter Obi’s claim that seven LGAs in Niger are under bandit control was correct as of January 2022. Some changes have happened in the region, but Obi remains mostly correct in the absence of new numerical data.
Claim II
While answering questions on the borrowing and debt profile of the country, Peter Obi identified some countries and their debt profile. He said, “I know that the biggest country, which is America today have almost 90% debt to GDP, second one China have over 60% debt to GDP, Japan is 230%. Even Singapore that we cite every day is 130% debt to GDP. (14:34). The problem we have as a country is that the money we borrow, disappears.”
Verification
According to the United States Government, the debt-to-GDP ratio in the last quarter of 2022 stood at 123.4%, slightly moving downward from 123.6% in the previous quarter. Similarly, at the end of 2022, China revealed that its debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 76.9%, which is an indication of upward movement from 71.5% in 2021.
In Japan, the debt accounted for 263 % of the country’s GDP in September 2022, compared to 259.4% at the height of the pandemic in 2020, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF), says Singapore’s official debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 141%.
Verdict
Obi’s claim is valid that these countries are heavily indebted, but his numbers are inaccurate. Therefore, his claim for the four countries’ debt-to-GDP ratio is False.
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