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  • Overview of Key Issues in the Pre-Election Period for the June 18, 2022 Ekiti State Governorship Election (Pre-Election Press Statement)

    Overview of Key Issues in the Pre-Election Period for the June 18, 2022 Ekiti State Governorship Election (Pre-Election Press Statement)

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    he first of two off cycle governorship elections for 2022 will be conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Ekiti State, on June 18, 2022. The election is the seventh in the state since the return of the current democratic dispensation in 1999. Following a 2010 Court of Appeal verdict, which removed then Governor Segun Oni, and declared Dr. Kayode Fayemi the rightful winner of the 2007 governorship election, Ekiti became one of several states holding off cycle governorship elections. The June 18, 2022 Ekiti State gubernatorial election is the very first to be conducted under the amended Electoral Act, 2022.

    As voters in Ekiti State head to the polls for tomorrow’s governorship election, the contest is apparently shaping up to be a three horse race involving the ruling party in the state, the All Progressives Congress (APC), the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which has clearly emerged as a third force in the election. CDD observes that there are 16 political parties fielding candidates for the election. Only two candidates and seven deputy governorship candidates are women, just as the age range of the candidates indicate low participation of the youth.

    The CDD EAC will be closely observing the electoral process with the objective of collecting data to support evidence-based analysis of key aspects of the Ekiti State governorship election. The CDD EAC will also host a fake news hub for the purpose of tracking and countering fake news and misinformation as it affects the election.

    Pre-Election Observations

    Based on the observation of the CDD EAC in the pre-election period, the following are the key trends, which have underlined the process.

    CDD notes that the June 18, 2022 Ekiti State Governorship election is significant because it will serve as the first dress rehearsal as the INEC prepares for the 2023 general elections. The election will also be the first to be conducted under the Electoral Act, 2022, and the new INEC guidelines and regulations for conduct of elections. CDD EAC further notes that although INEC has made commitments to conduct a credible election in Ekiti State, its success in this regard would depend on its neutrality, professionalism and the level of its understanding and commitment to the new legal framework. The credibility of the process would also depend on how well INEC uses some of its new powers as derived from the extant electoral law, especially the power conferred on the Commission to delay the release of election results, if the Commission needs to take a second look.

    The CDD EAC is concerned about violence, money politics and violations of incumbency powers and the possible effects of these on the credibility of the election. CDD EAC notes that Ekiti State, has recorded several incidents of violence during previous elections. In the build up to the 2022 governorship election, pockets of election-related violence have been recorded in places like Ado Ekiti, Efon Alaiye, Oye, Ido/Osi and Oye Ekiti. Other observable issues, which would shape the credibility of the election include; how well INEC is able to effectively deploy technology, particularly the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), impartial security provisioning, the quality of results management, curtailing the role of money, incumbency and god fatherism in the election. Also critical is the need for stakeholders in the election to proactively track, and counter fake news and misinformation. Already, the pre-election period has witnessed the spread of fake news capable of undermining voter confidence and participation in the process. An example is the fake news which trended recently on a purported Appeal Court decision nullifying the primaries of one of the major political parties and, by extension, its candidate.

    In terms of some of the election risk factor, CDD notes that the ongoing strike by the Academic Staff Union of Universities ( ASUU) has crippled the local economy especially in university towns in Ekiti State. This has created a threat in terms of the availability of idle youth being recruited for activities, which could undermine the credibility of the election. By grounding the local economy, the strike has also created the wrong incentives as voters are more likely to see the election as an opportunity for economic survival, thereby exacerbating the risk of vote buying. This becomes even more relevant when it is considered that Ekiti State introduced the issue of “stomach infrastructure” into the Nigerian political lexicon. CDD has also observed that based on history of past violence in elections in the state, the following Local Government Areas, constitute potential flash points in the election; Ado Ekiti, Efon Alaiye, Ido/Osi, and Oye.

    Signed:

    Professor Adele Jinadu

    Chair, CDD EAC

  • FACT CHECK: Does picture show a charging cord attached to Bola Tinubu’s arm? 

    Ahead of the May 29 official swearing-in ceremony, a picture of Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s president-elect, has circulated online with the claim that it shows a hidden ‘charging cord’ attached to his arm.

    The image, showing the moment Tinubu shook hands with the former British prime minister, Tony Blair, was shared by a Twitter user, @PIDOMNIGERIA on May 23, 2023. 

    The post has since garnered over 448,000 views, 1,740 retweets, and 4,552 likes as of when it was retrieved on Thursday, May 25, 2023.

    This is coming on the heels of the controversies that have trailed Tinubu’s presidential bid on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), with questions bordering on his health status.

    A veteran Nigerian singer, Charles Oputa, popularly known as Charly Boy, a staunch supporter of the Labour Party’s (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, had earlier alleged, “Tinubu now has charging port in case battery run down.” 

    The visit by Tony Blair comes few days after the former Lagos state governor arrived Nigeria from Europe, where he was on vacation for over a month. 

    Claim: Does picture show Bola Tinubu with a ‘charging cord’ under his arm?

    Screenshot of the viral Twitter post

    Verification

    To verify the viral claim, the CDD Election War Room traced the source of the picture to when the former British prime minister, Tony Blair visited Tinubu at the Defence House, Abuja, on May 23, 2023. 

    We assessed the pictures taken on the said occasion and found that the picture in question shows the seamline of Bola Tinubu’s native dress, and not a “charging cord” as claimed. 

    Verdict: FALSE

    CDD Election War Room can confirm that the viral picture shows the seamline of the native dress worn by Bola Tinubu and not a ‘charging cord’ attached to his arm. 

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  • FACT CHECK: Bode George makes multiple claims, how true are they?

    Bode George, a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), made a number of claims in an interview on AriseTV. He made these claims while speaking on the state of the Nation, his party and his relationship with the president-elect, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

    Claim I: They (INEC) tried the new electoral system in Anambra, it was flawless; they tried it in Ekiti, it was flawless; they tried it in Osun. 

    Verification

    How did BVAS fare during the gubernatorial elections in the above-mentioned states? 

    While it may be preposterous to classify the performance of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) in those states as “flawless’, it is necessary to have a holistic overview of the outcome of the BVAS performance in those states. 

    The 2021 Anambra state gubernatorial election was the “lab rat” for the Bi-modal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS). It was the first time that the BVAS, a new voting system introduced into the Nigerian elections to replace the smart card reader, would be used during an election. 

    The reactions that followed the performance of BVAS were diverse. Many people across the state complained about the non-functionality of the machine, post-mortem reports rated the BVAS as a failure, and stories regaled of how INEC officials were stranded in Anambra. INEC itself promised to investigate the reason for BVAS’ failure at the election. 

    The Ekiti gubernatorial election of 2022 was touted as the litmus test for the use of BVAS in the 2023 general election. BVAS was reportedly seamless in many polling units and was overall considered to have been successful. 

    The Osun election and the use of BVAS were also largely considered successful, albeit trailed by controversies. The Supreme Court recently adjudicated the matter of BVAS function and overvoting.  

    Verdict: Partly True

    Claim II: That APC copied zoning from the PDP. 

    Verification

    Zoning was first introduced into the nation’s politics during the second republic, after the Biafran civil war of 1967-1970. It was spearheaded by the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) as a measure to quell the existing ethnic tension of the time. The NPN used the zoning system to select its party officials. 

    “Zoning” was again recommended during the national constitutional conference which held after the annulment of the 1993 election. It was recommended by the committee that a rotational presidency will give all geo-political zones and areas access to power, which will in turn foster a feeling of oneness and a sense of belonging among the warring parties. 

    Although the PDP codified zoning under Chapter 1, Section 7, Subsection 3(c) of the party’s constitution, there is no part of the All Progressives Congress (APC) constitution that makes provision for zoning. However, the APC practises zoning unofficially as seen during the just concluded presidential election and the leadership of the 10th Assembly which is currently raising dust.

    It is thus difficult to expressly state whether the APC copied zoning from the PDP. 

    Verdict: No Evidence

    Claim III: Rwanda had bloodshed here and there five or six years ago, and Nigeria sent forces to Rwanda for peacekeeping. 

    Verification

    There is no record of bloodshed in Rwanda from five or six years ago. We could surmise that the bloodshed he refers to was the Rwandan genocide that happened in 1994. 

    Verdict: False

    Claim IV: That Nigeria is no longer invited to the G20. 

    Verification

    The G20 is a group of 19 countries that meet annually to discuss plans for the global economy and financial stability. It was founded in 1999, and it is believed that the G20 countries account for 85% of the world’s economic output and 75% of global trade. 

    The 19 member states of the G20 are Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the UK, and the US (and the European Union). 

    The member states rotate the presidency of the G20, and the president will decide which country will be invited as guests. 

    India is the G20 presidency for 2023, and it invited Nigeria alongside Bangladesh, Egypt, Mauritius, the Netherlands, Oman, Singapore, Spain, and the UAE. Prior to 2023, Nigeria had never been a guest at the G-20 summit. 

    Verdict: Misleading.

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  • FACT CHECK: Is the use of phones disallowed at the presidential election petition tribunal?

    On May 23, 2023, a Twitter user posted a tweet that “No phones, No live broadcast. 

    Has the Nigerian Presidential Election Tribunal turned into a secret trial?”

    As of the time of this fact-check, the tweet has garnered over 34,000 views and 7000 retweets. 

    Claim I: Is the use of phones disallowed at the Tribunal?

    Verification

    On May 20, 2023, CDD Election War Room attended the pre-hearing proceedings at the Presidential Election Tribunal Court. We can confirm that the secretary of the tribunal issued a circular, pasted at every section of the court, including the entrance, prohibiting the use of phones and other gadgets in the courtroom. 

    However, from the beginning to the end of the sitting, the rule was not enforced. From the lawyers to the media personnel and other observers, everyone used their phones at intervals and when there was the need for it, albeit, with caution. Some others had their phones and other gadgets conspicuously displayed on the table.  

    Since the circular was publicized, the CDD Election War Room observers have attended several sittings and in all, the rule has not been enforced. 

    Verdict: Misleading

    Claim II: Will there be no live broadcast of the tribunal?

    Verification: 

    On March 23, 2023, the president of the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) Yakubu Maikyau, alongside the general secretary, Adesina Adegbite, issued a communique at the end of its National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting held in Birnin-Kebbi, Kebbi State. The NEC unanimously passed the resolution calling for the live broadcast of the proceedings of the election petition courts and tribunals, particularly for the presidential election, by volunteering media houses.

    On May 7, 2023, the counsel to Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Chris Uche, moved the motion to televise the proceedings of the presidential election tribunal. 

    The counsel to the Labour Party (LP) and Peter Obi also filed an application seeking to televise the proceedings of the court. 

    However, Abubakar Mahmoud, counsel to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) opposed the motion. He said a live broadcast “will only defeat the solemn atmosphere of the court”.

    Similarly, Wole Olanipekun, the counsel to the president-elect, Bola Tinubu, said he was surprised by the application. He added, “the court is not a stadium or a crusade ground. It is not a theatre or circus”

    On May 22, 2023, the five-member panel of the court led by Haruna Tsammani dismissed the applications filed by counsels to Atiku Abubakar, the Labour Party, and Peter Obi. In their various submissions, they unanimously held that the application to televise the court proceedings lacked merit.

    Verdict: True

    The five-member panel of the Presidential Election Petition Court unanimously dismissed the application to televise court proceedings as lacking merit. 

    Claim III: Has the Nigerian presidential election turned into a secret trial? 

    Verification: 

    According to the Encyclopaedia of World Problems and Human Potential, a secret trial is a trial that is not open to the public or generally reported in the news, especially any in-trial proceedings. Generally, no official record of the case or the judge’s verdict is made available. 

    Based on this definition, the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal is not holding a secret trial. The courtroom is open to the public, after due accreditation and is generally reported in the news. At every sitting, there are journalists from various media organizations observing the proceedings and releasing timely reports to the public. 

    An example of a secret trial in Nigeria is that of Nnamdi Kanu, the embattled leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). In this trial, journalists and the public were barred from witnessing and accessing the courtroom. 

    Verdict: False

    The CDD Election War Room can confirm that the Court of Appeal in Abuja, venue for the presidential election tribunal, is open to journalists and public to attend the court proceedings. 

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  • FACT CHECK: Bola Tinubu won only five states in the 2023 presidential election?

    Dokun Ojomo has claimed in a Twitter post that Nigeria’s president-elect, Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), won only five states in the presidential election held on February 25, 2023.

    The post has since garnered over 330,000 views, 1,657 retweets, and 4,539 likes as of when it was retrieved from the microblogging platform.

    Bola Tinubu is set to be officially sworn in as the country’s president on May 29, 2023. 

    Screenshot of the viral Twitter post

    Claim: Bola Tinubu of the APC won only five states in the 2023 presidential election

    Verification

    The 2023 presidential election results by states, published in multiple media reports, as declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), showed that Tinubu of the ruling APC won in more than five states.

    The Nigerian Tribune reported that Tinubu won in 13 states; Rivers, Borno, Jigawa, Zamfara, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo, and Ogun.

    Premium Times, Foundation for Investigative Journalism, Arise News,  and the Vanguard Newspaper, reported that Tinubu won in 12 states, excluding Osun. This was also reported by the BBC, and Aljazeera, as seen here and here.

    Meanwhile, Premium Times later reported that Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) won River State following the review of the results uploaded to the election umpire’s result viewing portal known as IReV.

    At the time of this report, CDD Election War Room perused the IReV portal in search of Rivers state results and found that it is still not complete.

    The hearing of suits challenging Tinubu’s emergence, however, is still ongoing at the Presidential Election Tribunal Court and there is no ruling stating that he won only five states, as of the time of filing this report. 

    Verdict: FALSE

    The CDD Election War Room can confirm that Bola Tinubu of the APC won more than five states in the 2023 presidential election, as announced by INEC. 

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  • FACT CHECK: Did Ganduje Mention Plans To Scuttle Presidential Tribunal Verdict In Leaked Audio?

    FACT CHECK: Did Ganduje Mention Plans To Scuttle Presidential Tribunal Verdict In Leaked Audio?

    CLAIM: Ganduje’s Plans to Scuttle Presidential Tribunal’s Verdict

    CONTEXT: On May 20, 2023, Reno Omokri, an aide to Goodluck Jonathan, a former president of Nigeria, shared a tweet claiming that Kano State governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, has admitted plans to scuttle the verdict of the Presidential Elections Petitions Court.

    According to the reports in the leaked audio, Ganduje was heard discussing with Ibrahim Masari, who was a placeholder for the vice presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Kashim Shettima.

    Omokri claimed that Ganduje was lamenting how the meeting between Kano former Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and President-elect, Bola Tinubu was held in France without him (Ganduje) being informed.

    “That leaked audio between Governor Umar Ganduje of Kano, and Masari is so beautiful to listen to. It vindicates our administration. They admitted that they worked with Tinubu to undermine the Jonathan administration with propaganda about its corruption and that, in reality, Jonathan was not corrupt. I have been saying this for years.

    “And they even admitted that they are trying to scuttle the case at the Presidential Election Petition Court. Wow! “I hope the U.S. Secretary of State is seeing the type of people he wants to work with. May God save Nigeria!,” Omokri said in his tweet.

    The tweet has generated thousands of reactions on Twitter and has garnered over 30,000 views.

    VERIFICATION:  CDD fact-checkers listened to the audio, which was a phone conversation in Hausa between the Ganduje and Masari. Ganduje stated that the meeting between the President-elect and Kwankwaso was part of a grand plan to persuade Tinubu to intervene in quashing the tribunal case of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano, challenging the victory of Abba Kabir Yusuf of the New Nigeria Peoples Party as governor-elect.

    This is contrary to Omokri’s claim that Ganduje admitted to plans of manipulating the presidential election tribunal verdict where the victory of Tinubu is being challenged by Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party.

    “I received a security report that the meeting was part of a plan to scuttle the APC governorship case at the election petition tribunal,,” Ganduje said in the audio.

    However, Masari argued that it was not within the powers of Tinubu to scuttle the election case.

    “Yes, that game plan is there, but it is not within his purview, but your Excellency I’m pleading with you to be calm until you come around. Let’s not discuss this issue on the phone. You know how unsafe our conversation could be,” Masari further stated.

    VERDICT: Misleading

    Contrary to Omokri’s claim, the tribunal being referred to by Ganduje is that of governorship election and not the presidential election. As such the claim is misleading.

    Link: https://dailytrust.com/fact-check-did-ganduje-mention-plans-to-scuttle-presidential-tribunal-verdict-in-leaked-audio/

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  • FACT CHECK: Femi Adesina made multiple claims in his fact sheet, how true are they?

    On April 30, 2023, Femi Adesina, the special adviser on media and publicity to Nigeria’s president, Muhammadu Buhari, released a fact sheet comprising a list of achievements accomplished during the current administration.

    The fact sheet was divided into various categories such as health and education, social investment and poverty alleviation, infrastructural development, financing and investment, agriculture, anti-corruption and transparency amongst others.

    The CDD Election War Room ran checks on the education section of the fact sheet to verify the authenticity of the claims.

    Claim I: Since 2015, Buhari’s administration has licensed 94 additional universities, taking the total number of registered universities in Nigeria from 128 to 222.

    Verification

    We checked through the official website of the National Universities Commission (NUC), which is the accreditation body for universities in Nigeria. The NUC portal shows that there are a total of 221 universities made up of state, federal and private universities in the country.

    According to the details on the Commission’s portal, there are currently 50 federal universities, and the last registered was the David Nweze Umahi Federal University of Medical Sciences, Uburu, licensed in 2022.

    State universities are a total of 60, with the last registered being Sa’adatu Rimi University of Education, licensed in 2023. The total number of private universities in the country is the highest, which currently stands at 111, while 10 new private universities were registered in 2022.

    Screenshot showing the list of registered federal universities on NUC portal
    Screenshot showing the list of registered state universities on NUC portal
    Screenshot showing the list of registered private universities on NUC portal

    Verdict: Inaccurate

    The claim that there are 222 universities in Nigeria, is inaccurate. We can confirm that the total number of registered universities in the country as of May 2023, is 221, according to the data available on the official portal of the NUC.

    Claim II: Since 2015, the federal government has disbursed more than N240 billion in Universal Basic Education (UBE) matching grants, and over N24 billion from the Teachers Professional Development Fund, to States and the FCT.

    Verification

    To verify the authenticity of the claim, the CDD Election War Room perused the official website of the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC). The data by UBEC reveals that the total matching grants to states stood at N291bn. 

    The data obtained from the Commission shows that in 2015 and 2016, a total of N71bn was disbursed. 

    The government disbursed the sum of N48bn, N55bn, N56bn, N26bn, and N35bn in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively.

    As for the Teachers Professional Development Fund, data obtained from UBEC only covered from 2009 to 2018. We, however, found that the total sum of funds disbursed to states and the FCT stood at N25.3bn.

    The breakdown shows that the federal government disbursed N11bn in 2015 and 2016, while the sum of N15bn was released between 2018 and 2019.

    Verdict: True

    The federal government disbursed an estimated sum of N291bn as matching grants from 2015 to 2021, and an estimated sum of N25bn from 2015 to 2019.

    Claim III: Launch of the Alternate School Programme (ASP), designed to ensure that every out-of-school child in Nigeria gains access to quality basic education, irrespective of social, cultural or economic circumstance, in line with the aspirations of Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG-4).

    Verification

    Credible media outlets reported that the president inaugurated an 18-member Presidential Steering Committee on the Alternate School Programme (ASP) on January 26, 2021.

    The Committee was co-chaired by Sadiya Umar Farouq, the minister of Humanitarian Affairs Disaster Management and Social Development alongside Mallam Adamu Adamu, the minister of Education. The development was reported here and here.

    Verdict: True

    Claim IV: Launch of the At-Risk-Children Project (ARC-P)

    Verification

    Multiple reports from credible media outlets show that the ARC-P began in 2022 in states such as Borno, Ondo and Kaduna. The project is an initiative of the Buhari-led administration aimed at proving a sense of belonging to children and youth exposed to diverse forms of vulnerability.

    Verdict: True

    Claim 5: Presidential approval for;

    (i) a new (extended) retirement age of 65 and length of service of 40 years for teachers in Nigerian public basic and secondary schools in Nigeria (both effective January 1, 2021)

    (ii) a new Special Teachers Salary Scale (effective January 1, 2022)

    (iii) a new Special Teachers’ Pension Scheme

    (iv) establishment of the National Senior Secondary Education Commission (NSSEC) to regulate secondary education in the country

    Verification: 

    (i) Muhammadu Buhari, while commemorating World Teachers Day, approved a special salary scale for teachers, and increased the number of years of service to 40 and the retirement age to 65 years.

    Also on April 8, 2022, the president signed into law, a bill to extend the retirement age and length of service for teachers, to 65 and 40 years respectively. However, multiple reports dated January  22 2021, attributed to the minister of education, stated that the new retirement age took effect on January 1, 2021, almost a year prior to Buhari accenting the bill. Adamu Adamu, who is the minister of Education, stated that the take-off would not be a ‘uniform take-off date’. 

    Verdict: True

    (ii) Buhari approved a new special teacher’s salary scale on October 5, 2020. The new special salary scale according to the (then) minister of State for Education, Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba, was to commence on January 1, 2022. However, multiple reports state that the new salary scale as of September 2022 was yet to be implemented.

    Verdict: Partly true

    (iii) Buhari, as part of the welfare packages for teachers, approved a new special teachers pension scheme on October 5, 2020. However, Vanguard reported that the gazette to make it effective nationwide was yet to be released as of January 2023.

    Verdict: True

    (iv) The Nigerian government, through the Ministry of Education in 2021, approved the resuscitation of the National Secondary Education Commission (NSSEC) Act 1999 Cap. No.73 LFN 2004, to oversee the affairs of senior secondary schools in Nigeria.

    Verdict: True

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  • FACT CHECK: How true are these claims by Ben Ayade?

    Ben Ayade during an interview on Arise News

    In an interview with Arise News, the governor of Cross River state, Ben Ayade, made multiple claims in response to questions about his performance, few days to the end of his eight-years administration as governor.

    Claim I: Ben Ayade claims he never secured any foreign loan during his administration as governor of Cross River state

    Verification

    CDD Election War Room checked to verify the claim and here is what we found.

    An investigation supported by Policy Alert and published by The Mail on May 31, 2022, revealed how Ben Ayade’s administration acquired an unapproved foreign loan of N1.4 billion.

    The report analyzed the 2020 Accountant-General’s audited financial statement of Cross River state government and how Ayade-led administration secured the external loan for what it tagged “AFD CRS National Programme for Food Security”.

    The International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR) also published the report on June 1, 2022. 

    Verdict: FALSE

    The claim by Cross River State governor, Ben Ayade, that his administration never acquired foreign loan, is false. The CDD Election War Room found an investigation published in 2022, which revealed how his administration secured foreign loan of N1.4 billion.

    Claim II: Ben Ayade claims Cross River state has the lowest allocation in Nigeria

    Verification 

    Report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on the disbursement of funds by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), showed that Cross River state is not the state with the lowest statutory allocation in Nigeria. Ogun state gets the lowest allocation as of the last report by NBS.

    Verdict: FALSE

    Claim III: Ben Ayade claims Cross River state was among the top three most indebted states before he became governor

    Verification

    Data from the Debt Management Office(DMO) showed that Cross River state was among the top three most indebted states before Ben Ayade was elected governor in 2015. The states were Lagos, Delta, and Cross River States.

    Verdict: TRUE

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  • FACT CHECK: Did security agents prevent Peter Obi’s supporters from accessing the Tribunal Court?

    Peter Obi and other members of the Labour Party at the Tribunal Court on May 19, 2023. Source: CDD Election War Room

    On Friday, May 19, 2023, a Twitter user claimed that security personnel prevented supporters of Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party, from accessing the Presidential Election Tribunal Court. 

    This is as the pre-hearing in the petition by Obi and the LP against Bola Tinubu, the president-elect, continues today at the Appeal court.

    As of the time of filing this report, the tweet has garnered over 53,000 views, and has been shared on other social media platforms.

    The viral Twitter post

    Claim: Security agents prevented Peter Obi’s supporters from accessing the Presidential Election Tribunal Court.

    Verification

    The CDD Election War Room was present at the Court of Appeal and can thus confirm that all the political parties involved in the lawsuit—the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Labour Party (LP)— have an assigned number of supporters who were granted access to represent them, and that all the party representatives with tags were admitted into Tribunal Court.

    The party supporters protesting outside the courtroom do not have access tags and could not be granted access due to the limited capacity of the court.

    Verdict: Misleading

    The claim that Peter Obi’s supporters were denied access to the Tribunal court is misleading. We can confirm that the representatives of the party with access tags were allowed into the courtroom.  

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  • FACT CHECK: Garba Sheu releases press statement with multiple claims

    On May 16, 2023, The Guardian released a news article titled “Buhari leaves inflation at highest in 17 years.” The report showed that headline inflation has risen to 22.22% which is the highest in 17 years. The Guardian news report quoted the last consumer price index (CPI), released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

    In response, the Presidency has faulted the Guardian report in a State House press release, signed by Garba Sheu, the senior special assistant to the president on media & publicity. He said The Guardian was twisting politically sensitive facts to suit its preconceived notions.  

    Garba Sheu added that it is a “highest fallacy” to tie the highest rise of inflation in 17 years to Muhammadu Buhari, the president of Nigeria. He however said the high inflation is a worldwide problem, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

    Claim I: 

    Inflation is worldwide and caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, not tied to Muhammadu Buhari’s administration

    Verification: 

    The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in China in December 2019, caused widespread disruption to production and supply chains, leading to recession and inflation in many countries. There are several reports showing that the rising inflation is worldwide and can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of them can be found here, here, and here. 

    However, we can not exonerate Muhammadu Buhari’s admission for contributing to the growing inflation and the highest recorded in the last 16 years because, since 2006, Nigeria’s inflation rate has been below what was recorded in April 2023.

    In 2016, Nigeria’s economy went into a recession following a lull in economic activities as a result of the delay in the appointment of ministers and other key appointees upon taking over the reins of government in 2015 by President Buhari.

    The most recent inflationary figure released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in April 2023, puts headline inflation at 22.22% moving a little above March’s figure of 22.04%. 

    Here is a table of the inflation rate for the last 17 years. It is worthy of note that in August 2005, Nigeria recorded its all-time high inflation rate of 28.21%. 

    Verdict: Partly True

    The claim by Garba Sheu is partly true. While there are evidence and research work showing that the rising inflation is global and caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, there are also clear indications that it all happened under the Muhammadu Buhari administration. 

    Claim II: 

    France enjoyed a stable inflationary regime of 4.1% from 1960-2022 and is today reporting price increases of up to 1,080.36%. 

    Verification:

    The WorldData.info says they conducted an observation in France and the result showed that between 1960 to 2022, the average inflation rate was 4.1% per year. Overall, the price increase was 1,080.36%. That is, an item that cost 100 euros in 1960 now costs 1,180.36 euros at the beginning of 2023.

    Verdict: TRUE

    The claim that France’s inflation rate stood at 4.1% per year between 1960 to 2022 and the price increased by 1,080.36% in 2023 is true.

    Claim III: 

    At 10.1%, UK inflation is at a 41-year high

    Verification: 

    The Office for National Statistics revealed that the consumer price index (inflation rate) for March 2023 rose by an annual 10.1%. This follows an unexpected jump to 10.4% in February, after breaking three consecutive months of declines since October’s 41-year high of 11.1%.

    However, the inflation rate of 10.1% for March 2022 is not the highest in the last 41 years. The inflation rate for October 2022 which stood at 11.1% holds the position for a 41-year high. 

    Verdict: Inaccurate

    The claim that UK’s inflation stands at 10.1% is true, however, that is not the highest in the last 41 years. The inflation rate for October, last year holds that position. 

    Claim IV:

    Ghana’s inflation rate had hit a two-decades high of 54.1% before a recent decrease

    Verification:

    In December 2022, Ghana’s annual consumer inflation rose to 54.1%, an increase from 50.3% in November, of the same year. The inflation rate is reported here, here and here. 

    The inflation rate now stands at 41.2% in April 2023, a decline from 45% in March. 

    Verdict: TRUE

    The claim that Ghana’s inflation rate had hit a two-decade high of 54.1% before a recent decrease is true. The country recorded a 54.1% inflation rate in December 2022 and a decrease in 2023.

    Claim V

    Turkey’s inflation rate is 45%

    Verification:

    Bloomberg reported that core inflation in Turkey reached an annual 45.5% in April 2023, a decline from 47.4% in March. While the Turkish Statistical Institute puts the annual inflation rate in April 2023 at 43.7%, a decline from 50.5% in March 2023. 

    A Reuters poll puts the median estimate for inflation at year-end at 45%. However, this is an estimate from a poll and is unreliable. 

    Verdict: INACCURATE

    The claim that Turkey’s inflation stands at 45% is inaccurate as the Turkish Statistical Institute and Bloomberg report put the annual inflation rate in April 2023 at 43.7% and 45.5% respectively.

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  • FACT CHECK: Supreme Court’s ruling says 25% in FCT not required to win presidential election?

    A purported breaking news has circulated online, claiming that the Supreme Court has ruled that the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) is the 37th state in Nigeria.

    The post, shared by a verified Twitter user, @StFreakingKezy, states that the Supreme Court’s position shows that 25% is not required in the FCT to win the presidential election.

    As of when the post was retrieved from Twitter, it has garnered over 466,000 views, 1,730 likes, and 439 retweets since May 12, 2023, when it was posted.

    Screenshot of the Twitter post

    Claim: Supreme Court’s position shows that 25% is not required in the FCT to win the presidential election

    Verification

    The CDD Election War Room can confirm that the Presidential Election Petition Court held an inaugural sitting on May 8, 2023, as part of the process to address the litigations before it, which include the 25 per cent vote quota in Abuja for a candidate to be declared and returned as the president-elect.

    Aggrieved opposition parties had approached the presidential election petition tribunal after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), as the winner of the February 25 poll. 

    As of the time of filing this fact-check, the tribunal process is still ongoing at the Court of Appeal and is at its pre-hearing stage with no judgement delivered yet. Therefore, until the members of the tribunal deliver their final judgement that dissatisfied parties can further approach the Supreme Court to upturn the decision of the court. The Supreme Court’s decision is, however, final.

    We also checked to verify the claim and found no credible report stating that the Supreme Court has ruled over the vote requirement in the FCT, which is part of the issues that have since trailed the outcome of the 2023 presidential election. 

    Verdict: FALSE

    The CDD Election War Room can confirm that the presidential election tribunal process is still at the Appeal Court and in its pre-hearing stage. We also found no credible report stating that the Supreme Court has ruled against a 25% requirement in the FCT to win Nigeria’s presidential election.

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