Home Home

Home

  • Overview of Key Issues in the Pre-Election Period for the June 18, 2022 Ekiti State Governorship Election (Pre-Election Press Statement)

    Overview of Key Issues in the Pre-Election Period for the June 18, 2022 Ekiti State Governorship Election (Pre-Election Press Statement)

    T
    he first of two off cycle governorship elections for 2022 will be conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Ekiti State, on June 18, 2022. The election is the seventh in the state since the return of the current democratic dispensation in 1999. Following a 2010 Court of Appeal verdict, which removed then Governor Segun Oni, and declared Dr. Kayode Fayemi the rightful winner of the 2007 governorship election, Ekiti became one of several states holding off cycle governorship elections. The June 18, 2022 Ekiti State gubernatorial election is the very first to be conducted under the amended Electoral Act, 2022.

    As voters in Ekiti State head to the polls for tomorrow’s governorship election, the contest is apparently shaping up to be a three horse race involving the ruling party in the state, the All Progressives Congress (APC), the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which has clearly emerged as a third force in the election. CDD observes that there are 16 political parties fielding candidates for the election. Only two candidates and seven deputy governorship candidates are women, just as the age range of the candidates indicate low participation of the youth.

    The CDD EAC will be closely observing the electoral process with the objective of collecting data to support evidence-based analysis of key aspects of the Ekiti State governorship election. The CDD EAC will also host a fake news hub for the purpose of tracking and countering fake news and misinformation as it affects the election.

    Pre-Election Observations

    Based on the observation of the CDD EAC in the pre-election period, the following are the key trends, which have underlined the process.

    CDD notes that the June 18, 2022 Ekiti State Governorship election is significant because it will serve as the first dress rehearsal as the INEC prepares for the 2023 general elections. The election will also be the first to be conducted under the Electoral Act, 2022, and the new INEC guidelines and regulations for conduct of elections. CDD EAC further notes that although INEC has made commitments to conduct a credible election in Ekiti State, its success in this regard would depend on its neutrality, professionalism and the level of its understanding and commitment to the new legal framework. The credibility of the process would also depend on how well INEC uses some of its new powers as derived from the extant electoral law, especially the power conferred on the Commission to delay the release of election results, if the Commission needs to take a second look.

    The CDD EAC is concerned about violence, money politics and violations of incumbency powers and the possible effects of these on the credibility of the election. CDD EAC notes that Ekiti State, has recorded several incidents of violence during previous elections. In the build up to the 2022 governorship election, pockets of election-related violence have been recorded in places like Ado Ekiti, Efon Alaiye, Oye, Ido/Osi and Oye Ekiti. Other observable issues, which would shape the credibility of the election include; how well INEC is able to effectively deploy technology, particularly the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), impartial security provisioning, the quality of results management, curtailing the role of money, incumbency and god fatherism in the election. Also critical is the need for stakeholders in the election to proactively track, and counter fake news and misinformation. Already, the pre-election period has witnessed the spread of fake news capable of undermining voter confidence and participation in the process. An example is the fake news which trended recently on a purported Appeal Court decision nullifying the primaries of one of the major political parties and, by extension, its candidate.

    In terms of some of the election risk factor, CDD notes that the ongoing strike by the Academic Staff Union of Universities ( ASUU) has crippled the local economy especially in university towns in Ekiti State. This has created a threat in terms of the availability of idle youth being recruited for activities, which could undermine the credibility of the election. By grounding the local economy, the strike has also created the wrong incentives as voters are more likely to see the election as an opportunity for economic survival, thereby exacerbating the risk of vote buying. This becomes even more relevant when it is considered that Ekiti State introduced the issue of “stomach infrastructure” into the Nigerian political lexicon. CDD has also observed that based on history of past violence in elections in the state, the following Local Government Areas, constitute potential flash points in the election; Ado Ekiti, Efon Alaiye, Ido/Osi, and Oye.

    Signed:

    Professor Adele Jinadu

    Chair, CDD EAC

  • FACT CHECK: Did Galaxy Backbone say IReV was attacked during presidential election?

    FACT CHECK: Did Galaxy Backbone say IReV was attacked during presidential election?

    An online newspaper with nearly 400,000 followers on Twitter reported that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Results Viewing portal, also known as IReV portal came under 1.2 million attacks.

    According to the newspaper, Galaxy Backbone, which runs the website, said “1.2 million cyberattacks launched during the presidential election, next day”.

    The post has since gained over 650,000 views and thousands of engagements.

    Verification

    The Federal Government-owned company Galaxy Backbone (GBB), which offers information and communications technology services, held a two-day ministerial training for its board members and management team in Abuja on March 6, 2023.

    The training was tagged, “Positioning the GBB Team for Effective Management and Leadership in the 4th Industrial Revolution”.

    To verify the news report, CDD Election War Room searched credible media outlets for some of the press releases or videos collected from the training but we were unable to find any.

    However, the story was reported by News Agency of Nigeria and published by Punch, The Cable, and a few other media organisations.

    During the training, the Managing Director of Galaxy Backbone, Muhammad Abubakar,  disclosed that “On the election day alone, we were able to block more than 200 attacks and the next day, the attacks geometrically increased to about 1.2 million and all were blocked from our own businesses”.

    In a turn of events, on March 8, 2023, Galaxy Backbone released a press statement on its website and Twitter page disassociating itself from the comment made by the various media houses. The statement read:

    “ It has come to our notice that a section of the media is carrying some news that INEC’s IReV suffered attacks at Galaxy Backbone (GBB) on Election Day. This quote did not come from Galaxy Backbone Limited and should be disregarded”.

    “Galaxy Backbone Limited wishes to assure our customers of continued service delivery to meet their digital needs as we are known for. Thank you”

    However, on March 14, 2023, The Federal Government through the Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Isa Pantami released a press statement on IReV attack during the Presidential election.

    “Generally, threats to public websites and portals averaged around 1,550,000 daily. However, this skyrocketed to 6,997,277 on Presidential Election Day, a total of 12,988,978 attacks were recorded, originating from both within and outside Nigeria,” he said.

    “The parastatals, under the supervision of the Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy, have played a crucial role in providing the enabling environment for the successful conduct of a credible, free, fair, and transparent election,” the statement read.

    Numerous media outlets including Punch and Premium Times also published the press statement made by Isa Pantami.

    Conclusion

    Based on corroborated reports by Punch and The Cable, Galaxy Backbone MD made a statement that “On the election day alone, we were able to block more than 200 attacks and the next day, the attacks geometrically increased to about 1.2 million and all were blocked from our own businesses”.

    However, with a press release, Galaxy Backbone rebutted this report made by these media houses. This rebuttal was side-lined by the Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Isa Pantami, who released a press statement on the notion that the IRev was attacked during the Presidential Election.

  • FACT CHECK: Did slain UNICAL Prof manipulate presidential election results for Tinubu?

    FACT CHECK: Did slain UNICAL Prof manipulate presidential election results for Tinubu?

    The murder of a professor who was suspected of manipulating the presidential election results has been the subject of news reports. Numerous people have shared the news on social media, including Simon Ekpa, the self-described secessionist leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB).

    Ekpa claimed in a tweet that the professor allegedly manipulated the results of the presidential election held on February 25, 2023, in favour of Bola Tinubu, the president-elect of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

    Although Simon Ekpa did not specify the Nigerian state where the manipulation happened, some other posts suggest that it was Rivers.

    Verification  

    CDD Election War Room was able to confirm through credible news reports that Professor Felix Akpan, a professor of public administration, was murdered, and his death is being investigated by the Cross Rivers state police command. 

    Felix Akpan, a professor of public administration and former dean of student affairs at the University of Calabar, was an outspoken political analyst who shared election-related thoughts on his Facebook page. He predicted victory for the APC.

    However, CDD Election War Room was unable to establish any further participation in the previous election. Prof Charles Adias was the Rivers State collation officer during the just concluded presidential election.

    It is important to note that one of the requirements for appointment as a returning or collation officer is to not have an obvious political leaning, and also, nominations are drawn from the academic staff of Nigerian universities.

    According to the University of Calabar’s Public Relations Officer (PRO), Akpan has been away from academic activities for about four years because of an illness and is only now recovering from a stroke. 

    A former student of the professor, who shared videos of his recovery, corroborated the PRO’s information. 

    An assassination attempt was made against the deceased in 2012. A bullet meant for his head hit him in the hand and another person was killed in the process.

    Verdict 

    False. While the news of Prof. Felix Akpan’s death is true, he was not involved in the collation of presidential results during the February 25 presidential election because he was ill and just recovering from a stroke.

  • FACT CHECK: Viral image does not show an attack on Olumide Oworu of the Labour Party

    FACT CHECK: Viral image does not show an attack on Olumide Oworu of the Labour Party

    A viral picture of Olumide Oworu, the Labour Party candidate for Lagos State House of Assembly in Surulere Constituency I, went viral on social media alongside claims that thugs attacked him on Thursday, March 16, 2023.

    Following the said attack, a picture of a bloodied Oworu began circulating on social media.

    Verification

    CDD Election War Room checked Oworu’s and the LP’s social media networks to see if they shared the same picture, but found that neither of them did.

    On further investigation, we found that the image was from a movie set, On The Edge, and posted on Oworu’s Instagram page on October 3, 2022.

    It was captioned “Alagbado John Wick #OnTheEdge”.

    This photo was published six months ago before Oworu announced his intention to run for office in the Lagos state election.

    Verdict

    The image circulating on social media is old and does not show an attack on Olumide Oworu as claimed. CDD Election War Room found that the pictures were from a movie set as published on Oworu’s Instagram account six months ago.

  • FACT CHECK: Keyamo makes multiple claims on TVC — but how true are they?

    FACT CHECK: Keyamo makes multiple claims on TVC — but how true are they?

    Festus Keyamo, the principal spokesperson for the Presidential Campaign Council of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), made some controversial claims in an attempt to defend the victory of Bola Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate in the February 25 polls.

    Keyamo made these claims in a post-election interview on TVC earlier in the week. CDD Election War Room checked some of these claims and here is what we found.

    Claim I: Tinubu won his votes from all six regions in the country

    Verification: Based on the results as announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Tinubu won votes from all the six-political regions the least being the southeast with 127,605 votes.

    The votes via regions are as follows: Southwest 2,279,407 Northcentral 1,760,993, Northeast 1,185,458 Northwest 2,652,235, Southsouth 799,957 and South-east 127,605.

    Every other candidate in the top four also won votes from all six regions in the country.

    Verdict: True


    Claim II: It was only Tinubu that won at least one state in five different regions except one

    Verification: APC won four states in the southwest, one state in the south-south, none in the southeast, four states in the Northcentral, two states in the Northeast,  and one state in the Northwest.

    Verdict: True


    Claim III: Tinubu won three regions outright and came at least second and never took third in any region.

    Verification: APC won four states out of six states in the Southwest, while the Labour Party and the PDP won one state each — Lagos and Osun.

    Out of six states in the South-south, APC won just Rivers. The PDP won two states while the Labour party won three states. LP clinched all five states in the Southeast.

    In the Northcentral, the APC won four states and LP won three states. The APC won two states — Jigawa and Zamfara — in the Northwest, while the PDP won four states and the NNPP won 1 state. 

    In the Northeast, the APC only won one state, and the PDP clinched five states. 

    In total, the APC was only able to clinch three regions, the Southwest, the Northcentral, and the Northwest. While the PDP won more states in the Northwest, the total number of votes in the region puts the APC ahead of the PDP.

    The APC did not come third in any region, the party was either first or second in every region. Hence, Keyamo’s claim is true.

    Verdict: True


    Claim IV: Keyamo said in areas where Asiwaju lost, it was very very close.

    Verification: The difference between the APC and the LP which won the election in the southeastern region was a wide very wide margin. In the region, Peter Obi of the Labour Party won more than 12 times the amount of votes Tinubu garnered in the region.

    Also, the difference between the LP and the APC in the Southsouth was not “very very close” as Keyamo claims. LP won the region by more than 400,000 votes.

    Verdict: False


    Claim V: Those inroads that the Labour Party made into the Southsouth and southeast were PDP strongholds. They hardly scratched the APC.

    Verification: According to the 2015 and 2019 election results, the PDP dominated the south-south, southeast and northcentral states.

    2019 presidential  election result according to states
    2015 presidential  election result according to states

    Verdict: True


    Claim VI: “There was no time we wrote off Obi, we projected him to decimate the PDP and he did,” Keyamo said.

    Verification: Nasir el-Rufai, governor of Kaduna state and member of the APC, in an interview with TVC described the LP candidate as a “Nollywood actor”.

    “Peter Obi will sweep the south-eastern states; he will do well in south-south; where else? He’s not polling well in the southwest other than a drop in the ocean in Lagos,” he said.

    “Peter Obi is a Nollywood actor and that’s all he will be. This election is between the APC and PDP because they have the footprint; they have the spread.”

    The APC, PDP, and LP all won 12 states each, in the presidential polls.

    Verdict: False


    Claim VII: We did not see Tinubu in any Mosque or Church campaigning, Keyamo said.

    Verification: While Tinubu was not seen campaigning in any church or Mosque, Asiwaju was photographed at the JIBWIS National Mosque, Abuja, where he observed the Juma’at prayers alongside other APC candidates.

    Tinubu at a Mosque, before the election

    Verdict: Partly true


    Claim VII: Atiku didn’t get 10% of the votes in Kano. The difference between Tinubu and Atiku was about half a million votes, Keyamo claimed.

    Verification: PDP got 131,716 votes, (7.74%) in Kano state while the APC got 517,341 votes (30.4%). The difference in votes between the APC and PDP was 385,625. Keyamo exaggerated the gap between the APC and the PDP in Kano state.

    Verdict: Partly true.

  • FACT CHECK: Is Peter Obi ignoring Labour Party’s guber candidate in C’River to support PDP?

    FACT CHECK: Is Peter Obi ignoring Labour Party’s guber candidate in C’River to support PDP?

    Simon Ekpa, a spokesperson for the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), and a well-known peddler of claims to fit his separatist movement.

    Simon Ekpa, who has been on CDD Election War Room radar for a while, has made fresh claims. Some of his previous claims have been checked here and here.

    On March 14 2023, Simon Ekpa tweeted via his verified Twitter handle, saying: “Breaking! Simon Ekpa Vindicated; as C’River APC, LP supporters condemn Peter Obi’s support for PDP guber candidate” 

    Screenshot of Ekpa’s tweet

    This tweet also has a link to his blog post where he wrote “we warned them that Peter Obi was sent to distract Biafra agitation, now he has scammed them”.

    In the blog post, Ekpa claimed that Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate, ignored the Cross-River guber candidate, Ogar Osim, and endorsed the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) guber candidate, Sandy Onor.

    He called Peter Obi “a betrayer and a scam”.

    This has led to some Twitter users’ tweets believing and pushing this narrative. However, CDD Election War Room reviewed this claim, and here is what we found.

    Verification

    Going through the final list of candidates for Nigeria 2023 Governorship and Houses of Assembly elections, Obu Ogar is found on the list as the Cross River state Labour Party governorship candidate and Ekpezu Obu as the deputy governorship candidate.

    However, the leadership of all the support groups for the Labour Party Presidential Candidate, Peter Obi, in Cross River State, under the auspices of Coalition for Peter Obi (CPO), has endorsed and collectively agreed to support the candidature of Senator Sandy Ojang Onor the governorship candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

    The endorsement was made clear in a statement issued and signed by the various support groups.

    “This endorsement became imperative since the Labour Party in Cross River state does not seem to have a governorship candidate just as the party’s state chairman who doubles as the LP candidate has always described himself as a placeholder and he has not put up any serious efforts to convince anybody that he is contesting any election.”

    Furthermore, during a live interview with Arise News, Obi also verified that the Labour Party does not have a guber candidate in C’River and as such will be partnering with some good candidates in those states to ensure victory for them. 

    “In some places, we are going to work with some good candidates because there are some places we don’t have candidates”. 

    “Where we are going to have partnership like in Cross River state where we have somebody like Prof. Sandy Onor the senator flying under PDP who we consider an excellent candidate, we will support them”. 

    “For me, it is about having competent, credible people who have proven integrity and track record and can do well”.  

    Peter Obi further went on to say that he wants people to support candidates based on character, capacity and confidence even if they are not Labour Party candidates. A report by the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) also corroborates this.

    Verdict

    Here is what we know: Ogar Osim, the LP chairman for C’River, has always described himself as a placeholder, since no one else was running for the office.

    Peter Obi has also said that the LP will collaborate with another party that has a viable candidate for governor because the LP does not have one. Together, the LP and organisations backing the LP’s presidential candidate decided to back Sandy Onor.

  • FACT CHECK: Did Jandor, PDP guber candidate, say he rejected GRV as running mate for being incapable?

    FACT CHECK: Did Jandor, PDP guber candidate, say he rejected GRV as running mate for being incapable?

    A Twitter user posted a video interview of Abdulazeez Olajide Adediran, popularly called Jandor, with the claim that he rejected Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour (GRV) as his running mate for not being capable.

    This is coming three days before the March 18 gubernatorial and state house of assembly elections in Lagos state.

    Jandor and Gbadebo are both governorship candidates for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) respectively.

    The tweet, posted on March 14, has since garnered over 37,000 views, 56 retweets and 144 likes as of when it was retrieved from Twitter. 

    “Gbadebo chinedu was brought by a God father for jandor as a deputy, but he was rejected for not being capable..the same foolish boy talking about God father was brought by a God father and went to LP because he was not given deputy governor slot,” the caption to the post read.

    Screenshot of the Twitter post

    Claim: Jandor said Gbadebo was rejected as his running mate in PDP for not being capable.

    Verification 

    Findings by the CDD Election War Room show that the claim is misleading. 

    We found that the Twitter user lifted the said video from the TikTok page of Daddy Freeze, convener of ‘Free The Sheeple’, who hosted the interview. 

    We, however, traced the full version of the video to the verified Instagram page of Daddy Freeze.  

    We analysed the 1 hour 45 minutes-long recorded live session. We can confirm that Jandor did not say in the interview that Gbadebo was rejected as his running mate for lack of capability.

    In the video, Jandor explained why he left the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to pick the governorship ticket of the opposition PDP after serving as a consultant to the Lagos state government.

    According to him, he started his governorship ambition in APC but left due to the godfatherism said to be a major issue in the party. 

    He said after he won the PDP ticket, a leader in the party told him to make Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour his running mate, but he vehemently contested it. The party’s national leadership asked that Rhodes-Vivour submit an application for the position like every other interested person.

    Gbadebo applied as instructed but Jandor decided to choose Funke Akindele, saying he chose to avoid the issue of godfatherism, for which he left the APC.

    Rhodes-Vivour has since joined the Labour Party and is the party’s guber candidate for the March governorship election in Lagos state.

    Verdict

    The claim that Rhodes-Vivour was rejected as Jandor’s running mate because he was incapable is misleading; We checked and can confirm that Jandor said in the interview that he chose Funke Akindele because a leader in the PDP wanted to impose Gbadebo on him. He said the party leader is a friend of Gbadebo’s father.

  • FACT CHECK: Peter Obi made these 10 claims on Arise TV — but how true are they?

    FACT CHECK: Peter Obi made these 10 claims on Arise TV — but how true are they?

    During a post-election chat by Arise TV on March 13, 2023, Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, made a number of controversial claims. 

    Defending his position about Nigeria’s presidential election, which was held on February 25, 2023, Obi made some assertions, driving further conversations online and offline.

    CDD Election War Room checked his claims to keep you properly informed. Here are 10 claims made by Obi, and what we found about them.

    Claim I: Obi claimed that in India’s last election, 67% of the population of registered voters participated. 

    Verification: According to the Times of India, voter turnout during India’s last general election in 2019 was 67.1%, which was 1.16% higher than the 65.95% turnout in 2014. 

    Verdict: True. It is true that 67.1% of eligible voters participated in India’s most recent election. 


    Claim II: Obi said 95 million Nigerians are living in absolute poverty

    Verification: Multidimensional poverty measures poverty beyond monetary poverty. The National Bureau of Statistics issued a press release on November 17, 2022, highlighting the results of the multidimensional index survey.

    This survey sampled over 56,000 households from the country’s 36 states, including the FCT. According to the highlight, 133 million Nigerians, or 63% of the population, are multidimensionally poor. 

    Obi was likely quoting a World Bank projection — not an actual estimate, which stated that 95.1 million Nigerians may live in extreme poverty as a result of COVID-19 pandemic.

    Verdict: Inaccurate. An estimated 133 million Nigerians are multi-dimensionally poor, and about 71 million of those live in extreme or absolute poverty, according to the World Poverty Clock. 


    Claim III: Nigeria is the country with the highest infant mortality in the world.

    Verification: According to an estimation by the UN inter-agency group for child mortality, Sierra Leone has the highest infant mortality rate as of 2021, with an index of 78.25; the Central African Republic is closely behind with an index of 75.46; Somalia is at 71.13; and after that is Nigeria, with an index of 70.59. 

    Verdict: False. Nigeria has the fourth highest infant mortality rate in the world, and not the highest, as claimed. 


    Claim IV: Obi said during the 2019 elections, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had the highest vote in Anambra state, where they had almost 96%. 

    Verification: While it is true that the PDP received the most votes from Anambra in 2019 at a total of 524,738. The aggregate percentage is 86.63%, not “almost 96%,” as Obi claims. 

    Verdict: Inaccurate


    Claim V: Obi said: “I got more votes from indigenes in Lagos than those you can call visitors.” 

    Verification: Peter Obi won Lagos State with 582,454 votes, closely followed by Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) who received 572,606 votes.

    However, as far as we know, there are no data sets segregating votes by tribes in a secret ballot system as operated in Nigeria. There is also no data regarding the number of accredited non-indigenes and how they voted.  As a result, determining which tribes and indigenes voted for a certain candidate or the other is impossible. 

    Verdict: No evidence for Obi or anyone else to come to that conclusion.


    Claim VI: “In 2003, Obasanjo got over 90% of the votes in the entire Southeast.”

    Verification: Odumegwu Ojukwu, former military governor of the Eastern Region of Nigeria; Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari were top contenders in the 2003 presidential election.

    The total number of votes cast in the Southeast from Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo was estimated to be 4,550,279. 

    Muhammadu Buhari received 253,059 votes (5.56% of the total). 

    Odumegwu Ojukwu received 1,018,966 votes (22.39% of the total).

    While Olusegun Obasanjo received 3,161,019 votes (69.47%) of the total votes cast.  

    Verdict: False. Obasanjo received 69.47% of the votes cast in the southeast, not 90%. 


    Claim VII:When Abiola contested elections, he had more votes in the southeast ….even when his vice-presidential candidate was a Muslim from the North, and Tofa his opponent, had a respected Igbo man as his vice-presidential candidate. Yet Abiola won,” Obi said.

    Verification: In the Nigerian 1993 general elections, only two candidates were elected to run: MKO Abiola of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Bashir Tofa of the National Republican Convention (NRC). 

    There was a 25% voter turnout in that election and Abiola won only Anambra, one of the four southeastern states that existed at the time, while Tofa was victorious in Imo, Abia, and Enugu. (At that time, Ebonyi didn’t exist.)

    Verdict: False. Bashir Tofa won the majority of the Southeastern states.


    Claim VIII: Peter Obi claimed that when the 1993 election was annulled, the Igbos lost more in NADECO and had their businesses ruined. “Go and check the principal and the people who actually lost more in NADECO. It is the Igbos, we lost more in NADECO — it is Ralph Obioha whose businesses were ruined. Go and check it.” 

    Verification: In 1993, widespread protests erupted in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria after Ibrahim Babangida, the military head of state, annulled the results of the June 12 elections. The election was won by MKO Abiola, a businessman from the Southwest.

    The protests quickly turned violent, resulting in the loss of life, looting of stores, and destruction of property. The situation became so tense that many northerners and easterners living in Lagos fled, a phenomenon widely referred to as “Oso Abiola.”

    What is NADECO?

    The National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) was established on May 15, 1994, to exert pressure on Sani Abacha’s military regime to reinstate Moshood Abiola’s June 12 mandate.

    The document that established NADECO, according to Olusegun Osoba, an elder statesman, was signed by 49 people, one of them was Ralph Obioha, mentioned by Obi. 

    Ralph Obioha claimed to be the leader of NADECO in the United States and Canada. He admitted in a tell-all interview that he lost a chain of businesses, including a bank, a brewery, a cement bagging plant, and a vegetable oil company, which together employed over 2500 people. 

    The Losses

    The damage caused by June 12, 1993, was spread out over time. This July 1993 New York Times news report claims that not less than 11 people were killed during the immediate protest. 

    The violence that erupted in July 1998, after the death of MKO Abiola, triggered ethnic strife, of which many of its victims were of the ethnic Hausa group.   

    Verdict: It is difficult to objectively tell who lost more in the NADECO struggle. Abiola lost his wife, business, and his own life. Obioha lost his businesses, and many other Nigerians lost in like manner.


    Claim IX: The age of 40 is when people became presidents in America. 

    Verification: Of the 46 men who have served as president of the United States, only nine were between the ages of 42 and 49, with Theodore Roosevelt being the youngest at 42. 

    Joe Biden, the current president of the US, is the oldest president in the country’s history; he took the oath of office at the age of 78. 

    Verdict: Inaccurate. The average age of American presidents when taking the oath of office is 56.


    Claim X: “Life expectancy in the US is 72.5 years, in Nigeria, it is 54.”

    Verification: According to the most recent data (2021) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Americans have an average life expectancy of 76.4 years, while Nigerians have an average life expectancy of 53 years World Bank (2020). UN projections for 2021 and 2022, also show Obi’s claim is inaccurate.

    Verdict: Inaccurate. 

  • FACT CHECK: Is the video of the US govt congratulating Tinubu doctored as Melaye claims?

    FACT CHECK: Is the video of the US govt congratulating Tinubu doctored as Melaye claims?

    Dino Melaye, the spokesperson of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Presidential Campaign Council, posted a video on Twitter on March 15, 2023, disputing the United States (US) congratulatory message to Bola Tinubu on victory at the polls.

    Melaye’s tweet was caption: “US congratulate Tinubu: No be the man dey talk ooo. Watch him mouth. Which agbero tv station be this wey no get nafdac number. Na wa for desperados. SDM”

    Less than 24 hours after Melaye tweeted the video, it has garnered over 300,000 views and more than a thousand likes. 

    Melaye suggested that the video was doctored, and it does not show a US official congratulating Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for winning the election.

    Claim: Did the US congratulate Bola Tinubu on his victory at the polls or the video was doctored as Melaye claims?

    Verification

    On March 2, 2023, PlusTV Africa posted the video on their YouTube channel with the caption “Presidential Election: US Congratulates Tinubu On Victory At Polls.”

    Source of video shared by Dino Melaye

    The CDD Election War Room found that the video is an excerpt from the press briefing by Ned Price, the spokesperson for the United States Department of State.

    The US congratulating Tinubu 20 seconds into the video

    On March 1, 2023, Ned Price read the congratulatory message as part of his opening speech at the Department of State Daily Press Briefing.

    “First, the United States congratulates the people of Nigeria, President-elect Tinubu and all political leaders following the declaration by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission or INEC on the results of the February 25th Presidential election,” he said.

    He also posted the full statement on his official Twitter handle.  

    Verdict

    Dino Melaye’s claim is false. The video is genuine; the US congratulated Bola Tinubu for winning the just-concluded presidential election. The message is contained in a States Department press briefing by Ned Price. That video was uploaded by PlusTVAfrica on its YouTube channel. A statement was also published to this effect, asking the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to fix technical issues before the gubernatorial and state assembly polls.

  • FACT SHIELD: Has any candidate ever won in court? All you need to know about presidential election tribunals

    FACT SHIELD: Has any candidate ever won in court? All you need to know about presidential election tribunals

    Nigeria had one of its keenly contested and controversial presidential elections on February 25, 2023. Since the election, the phrase “go to court” has become a trend in the country. Every aggrieved party and presidential candidate is urged to go to court and challenge the process that made Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) the president-elect. 

    It is on this premise that the CDD Election War Room is writing this explainer to identify what it really entails to “go to court”. 

    Has anyone ever won at the tribunal? How long does it take to reach a decision? Will the president-elect be sworn-in while the tribunal is still ongoing? This Fact Shield answers all the frequently asked questions about election petition tribunals.

    The Election Petition Tribunal 

    After every election, every candidate, irrespective of the position they vied for, can approach a court of competent jurisdiction to challenge the process or results. The procedures to approach the court and challenge an election result or the process are contained in the 1999 constitution (as amended) and the Electoral Act of 2022. 

    How many categories of election petition tribunals are there?

    Three categories or modes of challenging the process or election results are set out in the constitution. The first two categories are the:

    -National Assembly Election Tribunals; and

    -Governorship and Legislative Houses Election Tribunals

    Section 285(1) established the National Assembly Election Tribunals and vests it with original jurisdiction to hear and determine petitions as to whether–

    (a) any person has been validly elected as a member of the National Assembly;

    (b) the term of office of any person under this Constitution has ceased;

    (c) the seat of a member of the Senate or a member of the House of Representatives has vacant; and

    (d) a question or petition brought before the election tribunal has been properly or improperly brought.

    The constitution also established Governorship and Legislative Houses Election tribunals in each state of the federation. This tribunal has original jurisdiction to hear and determine petitions as to whether any person has been validly elected to the office of the Governor or Deputy governor or as a member of any legislative house.

    What is the composition of these Tribunals?

    2019 Presidential Election Appeal Panel. PHOTO: PHILIP OJISUA 

    The National Assembly Tribunal, the Governorship, and the Legislative House Election Tribunal shall all consist of the chairman and four other members.

    The chairman shall be the judge of a High Court while the four other members shall be appointed from among judges of the high court, Kadis of a Sharia Court of Appeal, judges of Customary Court of Appeal or members of the judiciary not below the rank of a Chief Magistrate.

    What is the quorum?

    The quorum shall be the chairman and two other members. S.285(4)

    Can petitioners appeal?

    Petitioners who are not satisfied with the judgment of the tribunals can appeal to the Court of Appeal and any decision reached by the court of appeal is final.

    Who handles presidential election petitions?

    The third category covers the election petition challenging the results of the presidential election. In this instance, there is no tribunal. The Court of Appeal has the exclusive original jurisdiction to hear, deal and determine the presidential election issues. (Section 239(1) 1999 Constitution).

    The current issues raised by Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will be first addressed at the Court of Appeal, where a decision will be made.

    Can Obi and Atiku appeal the decision of the Appeal Court?

    Obi and Atiku

    Yes, petitioners can appeal to the Supreme Court, and decisions made at the Supreme court are final.

    This constitutional provision implies that the election petition tribunal will consist of three members and one of them will be the Chairman. However, since 1999, the petition tribunal has always consisted of five or seven Judges. 

    How many days does the Tribunal have to deliver judgment?

    The Tribunal must deliver its judgment in writing within 180 days from the date of the filing of the petition.

    However, an appeal from a decision of an Election Tribunal or court must be heard and disposed of within 60 days from the date of the delivery of the judgment of the tribunal or court.

    This means the issues raised by Obi and Atiku against the process may not be concluded until September-November, 2023.

    Who can challenge an election at the Election Petition Tribunal?

    Only contestants and political parties can challenge the result or processes after an election.

    Has any candidate won at the Presidential Election Tribunal?

    Olusegun Obasanjo and Olu Falae contested in the 1999 presidential election

    Since the country returned to democracy in 1999 and elected Olusegun Obasanjo, a former military administrator as its president, every presidential election has been contested at the election tribunal with the exception of 2015. 

    On March 15, 1999, Oluyemi Falae filed a suit at the Federal Court of Appeal in Abuja, challenging the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s declaration of Olusegun Obasanjo as the winner of the presidential election.

    Falae, the candidate of the All People’s Party (APP) joined INEC chief, Ephraim Akpata, and 57 others as respondents in the suit. On April 16, 1999, Justice Dahiru Musdapher-led election petition tribunal upheld Olusegun Obasanjo’s victory and dismissed Oluyemi Falae’s petition. 

    The 2003 Election Petition

    Fast forward to the 2003 general election, Olusegun Obasanjo contested for the second term and won. After the election, Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) challenged Obasanjo’s re-election. He approached the presidential election tribunal, and on July 23, 2003, the petition was unanimously dismissed by four out of the five presiding judges. 

    Dissatisfied by the judgment, Muhammadu Buhari of the ANPP approached the Supreme Court on June 6, 2003.

    On July 1, 2005, Justice SMA Belgore delivered the judgment validating the ruling of the Tribunal and maintaining that President Obasanjo won the election.

    The Yar’Adua-Buhari election

    On April 27, 2007,  Nigeria conducted its presidential election. The election was keenly contested by Umaru Yar’Adua of the PDP, Muhammadu Buhari of ANPP, and Atiku Abubakar of the Action Congress (AC).

    Shortly after the election, Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar approached the tribunal to challenge the election. On February 26, 2008, the five-man election tribunal panel upheld the victory of Yar’adua

    Dissatisfied with the ruling, the two runner-up candidates approached the Supreme court. On December 12, 2008, the seven-man justice led by Justice James Ogebe ruled that the two runners-up in the vote had failed to show evidence that graft was widespread enough to force an annulment.

    However, the judges acknowledged flaws in the election and chided politicians on their combative conduct in the vote and during legal challenges since. Four of the seven Judges upheld the victory of Umaru Yar’adua. 

    Jonathan vs Buhari 2011

    Jonathan and Buhari contesting in 2011

    On April 16, 2011, Goodluck Jonathan contested as the presidential candidate of the PDP. He had spent two years as the President, after the demise of Umaru Yar’Adua, the former president.

    After the April 2011 election, Goodluck was declared the elected president. However, Muhammadu Buhari who is now contesting under the platform of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) has decided to challenge the election. On May 8, 2011, the party approached the election petition tribunal at the Court of Appeal in Abuja

    Muhammadu Buhari of the CPC urged the appeal court to nullify the April 16 election and order INEC to conduct a fresh election. The Appeal was dismissed and he approached the Supreme court.

    On November 12, 2011, the seven justices on the panel, led by the Chief Justice of the Federation, Dahiru Musdapher, unanimously upheld the victory of Goodluck Jonathan

    2015 election as the outlier

    In 2015, Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP conceded defeat and reached out to Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress. The 2015 presidential election was accepted by all contenders and was not challenged in court. 

    Buhari vs Atiku 2019

    Buhari and Atiku have both been there, done that

    Fast forward to 2019, Muhammadu Buhari of the APC is seeking re-election while his major contender is Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

    Atiku approached the tribunal to nullify the February 23rd election because INEC refused to disclose results transmitted to its central server. However, INEC insisted it did not use a central server for results collation. The five-man tribunal panel in a unanimous decision dismissed Atiku’s petition and upheld Buhari’s victory. 

    Atiku Abubakar of the PDP approached the Supreme court to challenge the ruling of the election petition tribunal. On October 30, 2019, Justice John Okoro who read the judgment declared that Muhammadu Buhari was eminently qualified to contest and that INEC deployed no central server for the presidential election. The victory was unanimously upheld by the Supreme court judges. 

    TIMELINE: Supreme Court Verdicts on Presidential Elections

    Obasanjo vs Falae 1999
    Election date: February 27, 1999
    Date of petition: March 15, 1999
    Date of decision by Tribunal: April 5, 1999
    Date of decision by Supreme Court: Falae did not approach Supreme Court
    Decision time: 30 days
    Verdict: Elections upheld

    Obasanjo vs Buhari 2003
    Election date: April 19, 2003
    Date of petition: May 20, 2003
    Date of decision by Tribunal: July 28, 2003
    Date of decision by Supreme Court: November 14, 2003
    Decision time: 69 days
    Verdict: Elections upheld

    Yar’Adua vs Buhari 2007
    Election date: April 21, 2007
    Date of petition: August 8, 2007
    Date of decision by Tribunal: February 26, 2008
    Date of decision by Supreme Court: December 12, 2008
    Decision time: 492 days
    Verdict: Elections upheld

    Jonathan vs Buhari 2011
    Election date: April 16, 2011
    Date of petition: May 8, 2011
    Date of decision by Tribunal: November 12, 2011
    Date of decision by Supreme Court:
    Decision time: 188 days
    Verdict: Elections upheld

    Atiku vs Buhari 2019
    Election date: April 16, 2019
    Date of petition: March 18, 2019
    Date of decision by Tribunal: September 11, 2019
    Date of decision by Supreme Court: October 30, 2019
    Decision time: 177 days
    Verdict: Elections upheld

    The average time from petition to conclusion in the fourth republic is approximately 191 days. Using this timeline for the 2023 elections, a final decision can be reached by the Supreme Court by September 2023.

    Will Tinubu be sworn in while Tribunal is ongoing?

    Bola Tinubu is set to be sworn in on May 29, 2023

    Yes, the president-elect (as declared by INEC) will be sworn in on May 29, 2023, in line with the constitution of the country. However, if the Tribunal and the Supreme Court rule that Tinubu did not win the election, he can then be removed.

    Depending on the verdict of the court; a fresh election can be conducted if the court faults the entire Feb 25, 2023 election. In a situation where the court upholds the election, but disqualifies the said winner (the president-elect), the runner-up will be declared the winner of the election.

    However, there is no precedence for these scenarios at the presidential level.

  • FACT CHECK: Does image show Princess Oyefusi, Rhodes-Vivour’s running mate for Lagos guber?

    FACT CHECK: Does image show Princess Oyefusi, Rhodes-Vivour’s running mate for Lagos guber?

    Ahead of the March 18 guber poll across 28 states of the federation, an image has been making the rounds alongside claims that it shows the deputy governorship candidate of the Labour party, Princess Islamiyat Oyefusi.

    The picture, which shows a lady smoking at an event has been shared across social media with various claims, all pointing out that she is the running mate to Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour (GRV) of the Labour Party.

    Claim: Does this viral image show Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour’s running mate?

    Verification

    CDD Election War Room carried out some analysis of the said pictures using some reverse image tools and found that this image was first posted on 10 March 2023 by an account on Twitter with the caption “Next generation mothers”.

    The account made a follow-up post where it said the photo was of a lady in South Africa and not the running mate to the LP candidate in Lagos.

    Islamiyat Oyefusi, GRV’s running mate, also posted on her Twitter page to debunk the post.

    Here is a video of Oyefusi, and she does not have the same facial features as the lady in the viral image.

    Verdict

    The claim is false; the lady in the viral image is said to be a South African, she is not the deputy governorship candidate for the Labour party.