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  • Overview of Key Issues in the Pre-Election Period for the June 18, 2022 Ekiti State Governorship Election (Pre-Election Press Statement)

    Overview of Key Issues in the Pre-Election Period for the June 18, 2022 Ekiti State Governorship Election (Pre-Election Press Statement)

    T
    he first of two off cycle governorship elections for 2022 will be conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Ekiti State, on June 18, 2022. The election is the seventh in the state since the return of the current democratic dispensation in 1999. Following a 2010 Court of Appeal verdict, which removed then Governor Segun Oni, and declared Dr. Kayode Fayemi the rightful winner of the 2007 governorship election, Ekiti became one of several states holding off cycle governorship elections. The June 18, 2022 Ekiti State gubernatorial election is the very first to be conducted under the amended Electoral Act, 2022.

    As voters in Ekiti State head to the polls for tomorrow’s governorship election, the contest is apparently shaping up to be a three horse race involving the ruling party in the state, the All Progressives Congress (APC), the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which has clearly emerged as a third force in the election. CDD observes that there are 16 political parties fielding candidates for the election. Only two candidates and seven deputy governorship candidates are women, just as the age range of the candidates indicate low participation of the youth.

    The CDD EAC will be closely observing the electoral process with the objective of collecting data to support evidence-based analysis of key aspects of the Ekiti State governorship election. The CDD EAC will also host a fake news hub for the purpose of tracking and countering fake news and misinformation as it affects the election.

    Pre-Election Observations

    Based on the observation of the CDD EAC in the pre-election period, the following are the key trends, which have underlined the process.

    CDD notes that the June 18, 2022 Ekiti State Governorship election is significant because it will serve as the first dress rehearsal as the INEC prepares for the 2023 general elections. The election will also be the first to be conducted under the Electoral Act, 2022, and the new INEC guidelines and regulations for conduct of elections. CDD EAC further notes that although INEC has made commitments to conduct a credible election in Ekiti State, its success in this regard would depend on its neutrality, professionalism and the level of its understanding and commitment to the new legal framework. The credibility of the process would also depend on how well INEC uses some of its new powers as derived from the extant electoral law, especially the power conferred on the Commission to delay the release of election results, if the Commission needs to take a second look.

    The CDD EAC is concerned about violence, money politics and violations of incumbency powers and the possible effects of these on the credibility of the election. CDD EAC notes that Ekiti State, has recorded several incidents of violence during previous elections. In the build up to the 2022 governorship election, pockets of election-related violence have been recorded in places like Ado Ekiti, Efon Alaiye, Oye, Ido/Osi and Oye Ekiti. Other observable issues, which would shape the credibility of the election include; how well INEC is able to effectively deploy technology, particularly the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), impartial security provisioning, the quality of results management, curtailing the role of money, incumbency and god fatherism in the election. Also critical is the need for stakeholders in the election to proactively track, and counter fake news and misinformation. Already, the pre-election period has witnessed the spread of fake news capable of undermining voter confidence and participation in the process. An example is the fake news which trended recently on a purported Appeal Court decision nullifying the primaries of one of the major political parties and, by extension, its candidate.

    In terms of some of the election risk factor, CDD notes that the ongoing strike by the Academic Staff Union of Universities ( ASUU) has crippled the local economy especially in university towns in Ekiti State. This has created a threat in terms of the availability of idle youth being recruited for activities, which could undermine the credibility of the election. By grounding the local economy, the strike has also created the wrong incentives as voters are more likely to see the election as an opportunity for economic survival, thereby exacerbating the risk of vote buying. This becomes even more relevant when it is considered that Ekiti State introduced the issue of “stomach infrastructure” into the Nigerian political lexicon. CDD has also observed that based on history of past violence in elections in the state, the following Local Government Areas, constitute potential flash points in the election; Ado Ekiti, Efon Alaiye, Ido/Osi, and Oye.

    Signed:

    Professor Adele Jinadu

    Chair, CDD EAC

  • From ‘Yes Daddy’ to Soyinka debate — Here are top social media trends for the week

    From ‘Yes Daddy’ to Soyinka debate — Here are top social media trends for the week

    The trends for the past week can easily be likened to what is commonly known as the ‘Domino Effect’. In this effect, one action triggers a series of continuous actions. The political player responsible for the week’s domino is ‘Peter Obi’.

    Throughout the week, various issues that were trending, appeared to be interconnected, resulting in a significant online response.

    The ‘Yes Daddy’ Saga

    During the course of the week, the hashtag ‘Yes Daddy’ dominated social media with over 200,000 tweets. Alongside this hashtag, other trending hashtags such as #PeterObi, #ItIsPossible, #ThankYouDaddy, #Oyedepo, and #MrPeterObi have collectively received a considerable number of tweets, surpassing 400,000 tweets over the course of the week.

    The widespread coverage of these tweets by various media outlets led to curiosity about the origin of the ‘Yes Daddy’ trend.

    The CDD Election War Room has analysed and explained the phenomenon behind the trend.

    An audio clip allegedly containing a phone conversation between Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate, and David Oyedepo, founder of the Living Faith Church Worldwide, was leaked on April 1, 2023.

    In the leaked audio, the two alleged individuals discussed a range of topics including politics and religion, with Peter Obi reportedly seeking votes and referring to the 2023 election as a “religious war”.

    The audio was first reported by the online news outlet, Peoples Gazette, on their official Twitter page and has since gained widespread attention, with over 10.3 million views of the 4:17 minute recording. 

    The leaked audio has triggered series of debates amongst Nigerians, with some individuals urging for an inquiry into the credibility of the audio, contending that it is a form of propaganda and completely false.

    Conversely, there are those who maintain their conviction that the audio is genuine. A few examples of responses to the audio are presented below:

    On April 5, 2023, Obi took to his Twitter page to debunk the audio and inform the public of his legal team’s intention to pursue appropriate legal actions against the Peoples Gazette and other parties involved.

    This statement has gained significant coverage, accumulating over three million views and 26,000 retweets. 

    Minister Lai

    One of the trends at the top in the last week was #MinisterLai with over 48,000 tweets. Lai Mohammed is the Minister of Information and Culture.

    The minister who travelled to Washington to interact with international media organisations and pundits to discuss the recently concluded 2023 elections, made a statement on April 4, 2023, suggesting that “it was wrong for Obi to seek redress in court over the outcomes of the poll and in another, inciting people to violence.” 

    Numerous individuals have responded to this statement and shared their perspectives. 

    Peter Obi responded to the statement, refuting the accusation made against him. He stated that “Minister Lai accusing me of stoking insurrection is totally malicious and fictitious” This response has now amassed over 3.6 million views. 

    CDD Election War Room also fact-checked the claims made by Mohammed and you can read what we found here.

    Nobel Prize laureate Wole Soyinka

    Wole Soyinka was also a new addition to the trend table. With over 38,000 tweets, with harshly laced criticism for the Nobel Prize laureate over his statement regarding Datti Baba-Ahmed.

    The trending hashtag #Datti garnered over 39,000 tweets. Soyinka made a statement regarding Datti’s interview held on March 22, 2023, on Channels Television.

    Speaking with Channels Television in a one-hour interview, where he denounced the menacing utterances of a vice-presidential aspirant as ‘unbecoming’.

    It was a gladiatorial challenge directed at the judiciary and, by implication, the rest of the democratic polity. This was reported here.

    The reason for the response was not solely Soyinka’s interview denouncing Datti; rather, it stemmed from his use of the term “fascism.”

    A quick definition of the word ‘fascism’: Merriam-Webster defines it as a “political philosophy, movement, or regime (such as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual and that stands for a centralised autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition”. 

    On April 5, 2023, Soyinka spoke to Arise Television, further providing a detailed explanation of his statement in response to the matter.

    He further went on to challenge Datti to a one-on-one interview. This was reported on Channels Official Twitter page and had over one million views. See the tweet here. Here are some of the reactions to this:

    Chimamanda’s letter to Biden

    On April 6, 2023, Chimamanda Adichie, an award-winning Nigerian writer, addressed a letter to Joe Biden, the US president, expressing her discontent with the process of the presidential polls that took place on February 25th, 2023.

    In a post on her official page, she wrote “I supported Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate, and hoped he would win, as polls predicted, but I was prepared to accept any result because we had been assured that technology would guard the sanctity of votes …” 

    This post has since had over 2.2 million views. As usual, the post had mixed reactions from individuals with different viewpoints.

    Multiple members of the APC have responded to the letter, notable among them are Femi Fani-Kayode, Dele Alake, and Festus Keyamo, all spokespersons of the APC PCC.

    In conclusion, these were a few of the topics that gained the most popularity on social media during the past week.

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  • FACT CHECK: Did Tinubu bribe ICC with $400m to influence his prosecution?

    FACT CHECK: Did Tinubu bribe ICC with $400m to influence his prosecution?

    On March 31, 2023, a post went viral on Twitter and Facebook claiming that the International Criminal Court (ICC) rejected a $400 million bribe from the president-elect, Bola Tinubu.

    The claim comes a few days after the Court of Appeal in Abuja granted permission to the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi, to serve his petition challenging the February 25, 2023, presidential election.

    Since the claim was shared on Twitter, it has since gained almost a million impressions.

    Verification

    In verifying the claim, CDD Election War Room traced the earliest version of the post, which was made by a Facebook page called “Anonymous”. The same post has since been shared across multiple Facebook groups, pages, and accounts.

    Did claim originate from global hacktivist group?

    The source Facebook page is a parody account pretending to be The Anonymous, a group of global hackers and activists who refer to themselves as “hacktivists.”

    They claim to defend social issues and interests around the world by hacking government websites and accounts and sending anonymous messages.

    The claim did not originate from the global hacktivist group.

    Screenshot of the authentic Anonymous group official Facebook page

    We checked the page transparency history of the parody “Ànonymous” account, and found that the page was created in 2022 with the name “Matchscore”.

    It was later changed to “Match Corner,” before it was edited to become “Anonymous” in November 2022. The Facebook transparency information revealed that the page is being handled by six people in Nigeria.

    The page had, in the past, claimed that Tinubu gave $200m to Mahmood Yakubu, the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

    The handle also made a post on April 2, 2023, claiming that Bola Tinubu met with Judge Luz D. Carmen Ibáñez, and improved his proposal to $550 million, which was outrightly rejected.

    Is there any case against Tinubu at the ICC?

    The claim that Tinubu has bribed ICC presupposes that Tinubu is persuading the criminal court to rule in his favour. But CDD Election War Room found that Tinubu has no case before the ICC.

    The ICC keeps a record of all active cases via a public portal. We checked the portal and found no case against Tinubu or any Nigerian politician.

    ICC opened an investigation into War Crimes in Nigeria, and in 2020 released the report on its preliminary examination. The crimes being examined are by Boko Haram and the Nigerian military.

    No election case before the ICC.

    Did Tinubu bribe ICC judges?

    The post claimed that Tinubu met the president of the court, Luz del Carmen Ibáñez Carranza, and bribed her $550 million.

    First, Carranza is not the president of the ICC, as the post claims. She is the first vice-president of the court, and is currently in charge of the Appeals chamber.

    Secondly, Tinubu has no case before the ICC, hence, no basis for the alleged bribery.

    Finally, CDD Election War Room reached out to the ICC Office of the Prosecutor, Public Affairs Unit, and Fadi El Abdallah, the spokesperson and head of the Public Affairs Unit at the International Criminal Court (ICC), and would update this report as soon as we have the court’s response. So far, there is no evidence to support the claim that Tinubu bribed the ICC.

    Verdict:

    CDD Election War Room found no evidence to support the claim that Tinubu bribed the ICC. We checked ICC case files and found that Tinubu has no case at all before the court. We also traced the source of the claim to a parody account on Facebook.

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  • Fact Check: Does Nigeria Have the Lowest VAT Rate as the Minister of Finance Claimed?

    Fact Check: Does Nigeria Have the Lowest VAT Rate as the Minister of Finance Claimed?

    Claim:  Nigeria Has the Lowest Value-Added Tax (VAT) Rate

    Verdict:  False

    Context:  As Nigeria struggles with a rising cost of governance and depleting revenue, the government continues to look for avenues to raise money. One such way is through Value Added Tax (VAT).  Recently, the country’s Minister of Finance Budget and Planning, Hajia Zainab Ahmed, while paying a courtesy call on Nigeria’s international broadcasting station, Voice of Nigeria, argued that Nigeria should raise more revenue from VAT, by increasing the rate from 7.5% to 10%. To justify her stance, the minister stated that “VAT was one of the ways to increase revenue, and we still have to increase Value Added Tax (VAT) because, at 7.5 percent, Nigeria has the lowest VAT rate in the world, not in Africa, in the world.”

    Value-Added Tax (VAT) was introduced in 1993 to replace the sales tax in Nigeria. It continues to take up more space in its contribution to Nigeria’s revenue, reaching a whopping N1.2 trillion Naira in the first six months of 2022. The Minister stressed that Value Added Tax (VAT) is a consumption tax paid when goods are purchased, and services rendered. All goods and services (produced within or imported into a country) are taxable except those specifically exempted by the VAT Act. It is a vital source of revenue for governments across the world. But does Nigeria actually have the lowest VAT rate in the world?

    Verification: In verifying the claim by the Minister of Finance Budget and Planning, Hajia Zainab Ahmed, CDD fact checkers carried out a search on the Global VAT Compliance website. Global VAT Compliance has an up-to-date VAT rate across different countries. Contrary to the minister’s claim, it was discovered that there are three countries with VAT rates lower than Nigeria, which include Oman, Thailand, and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Further search on each country’s website also revealed that the numbers are accurate. On the Thailand website, the VAT implementation had been in place since 1992 replacing Business Tax (BT) and stands at 7 percent. Meanwhile, on the Oman website, the VAT rate stands at 5 percent same as the UAE rate as seen on their website.

    Conclusion: Based on the available and verifiable data, findings by CDD fact-checkers show that Oman has 5% VAT rate, Thailand 7% VAT rate, and the UAE has 5% VAT rate lower than Nigeria’s 7.5% charge. Therefore, CDD fact-checkers can confirm that the claim made by the Finance Budget and Planning, Hajia Zainab Ahmed that Nigeria has the lowest Value Added-Tax (VAT) rate is false. 

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  • FACT CHECK: How true are Lai Mohammed’s claims about Peter Obi, 2023 elections?

    FACT CHECK: How true are Lai Mohammed’s claims about Peter Obi, 2023 elections?

    Lai Mohammed, Nigeria’s minister for information and culture, during the week addressed international media organisations in Washington DC. 

    The minister who spoke to the international community on the state of the nation after the 2023 election made some claims against Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate.

    Claim I: Peter Obi and Datti Baba-Ahmed are inciting people to violence

    The minister speaking on Obi noted that the LP candidate was inciting Nigerians to violence over his loss at the presidential poll of February 25, 2023.

    He said, “Obi and his Vice, Datti Baba-Ahmed cannot be threatening Nigerians that if the President-elect, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is sworn in on May 29, it will be the end of democracy in Nigeria.

    “This is treason. You cannot be inciting insurrection, and this is what they are doing. Obi’s statement is that of a desperate person, he is not the democrat that he claimed to be. A democrat should not believe in democracy only when he wins the election,” he said.

    Verification:

    In verifying this claim, the CDD Election War Room ran multiple searches and listened to numerous interviews involving Obi and his vice, Datti Baba-Ahmed. 

    We found a post-election interview of Baba-Ahmed on Channels TV Politics Today, where the LP vice presidential candidate said swearing in Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s president-elect was ending democracy a reference made by Lai Mohammed.

    To grasp the full context, excerpts from his interview reads, “I’m working with the constitution there. That document you just read and I’m following it and I dare to tell you that swearing in Tinubu and Shettima is as good as swearing in the Nigerian army on 29th May.

    “If you swear in people that have not satisfied the constitutional requirements, you have by so doing ended democracy. The crisis that I’m telling you now is that this our democracy is going to end by the way we are going May 29, 2023.” 

    Although Obi’s running mate, made frivolous statement, by saying that electing Tinubu was the end of democracy, his statement however cannot be said to incite violence.

    Peter Obi days after the Presidential election disassociated himself from the various calls for a protest peddled on social media. He however noted that he would address his grievance in court.

    Following the statement by the minister, Obi further reiterated his stands in a statement made available to the press. 

    “I have never discussed or encouraged anyone to undermine the Nigerian state; I have never sponsored or preached any action against the Nigerian state,” he said in response to Mohammed.

    Verdict: Lai Mohamed’s claim is misleading. Peter Obi has continuously called for peace and due process in recovering what he believes to be his mandate via constitutional means. However, Datti Baba-Ahmed has made inciting statements on national TV about the elections and Nigerian democracy.

    Claim II: 2023 is the fairest, most transparent, and most authentic in the history of Nigeria.

    Speaking on the conduct of the just concluded elections, Mohammed said, “We have come here to balance that skewed narratives and to tell the world unambiguously that the just concluded general election in Nigeria is the fairest, most transparent and authentic in the history of Nigeria”.

    “The election is the fairest and credible because of the introduction of the Bimodal Voters Verification System (BVAS), which I regard as a game changer.”

    Verification:

    In comparison to other elections held, one election that has been highly commended was the 2015 general elections.

    Nigeria’s general election was held in February and March 2023. Since its conduct, Nigerians have had mixed reactions with some calling for an outright cancellation.

    During the general elections, there were reports of voter suppression and intimidation. People also queried the reluctance of the election umpire on the pace of uploading election results to the IReV portal.

    CDD Election War Room compared the domestic and international observer reports of the 2023 elections with that of the 2015 elections to establish the fact of the claim.

    For 2015 Elections

    The Commonwealth observer group described the elections as generally peaceful and transparent.

    African Union Election Observation Mission (AU EOM) noted that the elections were conducted in a peaceful atmosphere within the framework that satisfactorily meets the continental and regional principles of democratic elections.

    The EU observer mission stated in its final report that “INEC made commendable attempts to strengthen electoral arrangements, however, systemic weaknesses leave the process vulnerable to abuse by political contenders”.

    For 2023 Election

    Observers groups on ground have given diverse positions on the conduct of the elections. Commonwealth observers, an independent group described the just concluded elections as “largely peaceful” despite administrative and logistical hurdles at many polling units. 

    The European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) to Nigeria stated that the just concluded presidential and National Assembly elections in Nigeria were marred by a lack of transparency on the part of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

    African Union Election Observation Mission noted logistical challenges, stating that “83% of the polling units visited opened late. The average delay was over an hour; in some cases they opened as late as 11:00am”.

    The mission however added, “that despite the challenging economic, operational and security environment, the elections were generally well-administered in a transparent and peaceful atmosphere”.

    Verdict

    The CDD Election War Room found no evidence to adjudge the 2023 general election as the fairest, most transparent, and most authentic in the history of Nigeria. Domestic and International Observers noted multiple flaws in the conduct of the elections as stated in their individual reports.

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  • FACT CHECK: Did the US place a visa ban on INEC chairman, Wike?

    FACT CHECK: Did the US place a visa ban on INEC chairman, Wike?

    On April 2, 2023, a Twitter user claimed that the United States of America (USA) slammed a visa ban on Mahmood Yakubu, the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Nyesom Wike the governor of Rivers state, and several others allegedly involved in electoral malpractices in the just concluded general elections.

    “USA slams visa ban on INEC Chairman, Wike and several hundreds of others following their alleged infamous role in the recently conducted general elections in Nigeria,” the post read. 

    “The visa ban list, which also includes their wives, children, and relatives, will be submitted to the White House, US Congress, and State Department on April 3, 2023, for immediate action.”

    The post had garnered over 330,000 views as of the time of this report.

    The Twitter thread also contained a link to a news article published on an online news website called The Conclave.

    The news article was titled “2023: US slams visa ban on INEC chair, other complicit poll participants” and was published on March 31, 2023.

    The article had a large list of various Nigerian political figures who allegedly got a visa ban.

    Background

    Reactions are still trailing the just-concluded 2023 general elections, which were marred by violence, manipulation, and voters’ suppression in some parts of the country.

    Some aggrieved individuals on social media are urging the international community, including the US and the UK, to impose visa bans on the alleged perpetrators of electoral irregularities.

    A press statement was released by the US Department of State on January 25, 2023, reiterating its commitment to impose visa bans on individuals who attempt to undermine democracy in Nigeria.

    Verification

    CDD Election War Room found the claim to be false.

    Although over 267,000 Nigerians have signed a petition on change.org calling on the US, the EU, and the UK to place a visa restriction on the transport union leader, Musiliu Akinsanya aka MC Oluomo, Nyesom Wike among others, there has been no active response from these countries.

    We found that according to section 222 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), the US does not make public the record of those whose visas were denied.

    “The records of the Department of State and of diplomatic and consular offices of the United States pertaining to the issuance or refusal of visas or permits to enter the United States shall be considered confidential,” the act reads.

    Such records “shall be used only for the formulation, amendment, administration, or enforcement of the immigration, nationality, and other laws of the United States”.

    This sort of misinformation is not new to Nigeria’s electoral landscape; in 2019, after the election, a similar list was making the rounds alongside claims that the politicians named had been banned from entering the US.

    The US Embassy in Abuja told journalists at the time, that “under U.S. law, individual visa records are confidential, and we cannot provide details as to who is or will be affected.”

    Verdict

    The claim that the US has placed a visa ban on political figures is false. CDD Election War Room found that it is against the laws of the US to publish information on individual visa refusal. US Embassy in Nigeria has previously debunked such a claim.

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  • FACT CHECK: Were Igbo traders locked out of Akorede market in Lagos for no reason?

    FACT CHECK: Were Igbo traders locked out of Akorede market in Lagos for no reason?

    A video making the rounds on social media claimed that Igbo traders were locked outside the Akorede market in Lagos state for no reason on April 3, 2023.

    The video claimed that the Local Council Development Authority (LCDA) chairman, (not LGA) ordered the locking of the market for no reason whatsoever.

    However, the video made insinuations that the reason for the locking out of the traders is a result of the “fall-out of the just-concluded election where some section of the country residing in Lagos were being ordered to leave Lagos, or be frustrated out.”

    Claim

    Igbo traders in Akorede market, Lagos state were ordered to be locked outside by the Local Council Development Authority (LCDA) chairman for no reason. 

    Background

    Violence, intimidation, and ethnic strife were recorded between the Yoruba and Igbo ethnic groups in Lagos during the 2023 general election which took place on February 25 and March 18.

    Peter Obi, an Igbo and the Labour Party (LP) candidate, won the majority votes in Lagos state ahead of the All Progressive Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, who’s Yoruba, and a former governor of the State.

    Some Yoruba people became agitated after Obi’s victory, and claimed that the Igbos residing in Lagos state wanted to ‘dominate’ the state by voting Labour Party. 

    As a result, hoodlums and political thugs openly attacked and harassed Igbo voters during the gubernatorial election in Lagos state, asking them to leave the polling units except if they were voting for the APC.

    Verification

    The CDD Election War Room reached out to a number of the traders who were locked out of the market but they all declined to comment on the incident.

    However, we found that traders locked out of the market were not just Igbo traders. Traders from other parts of the country were also affected, but a majority of those affected were Igbo.

    Acknowledging the market shutdown, the senior special assistant (SSA) to the governor of Lagos State on New Media, Jubril Gawat, made clarifications about the video on his personal Twitter page on April 4, 2023.

    Gawat maintained that the reason for locking out the said traders was because of the following reasons:

    -Using cart pushers to pack refuse instead of  the Lagos State Waste Management Agency (LAWMA);

    -Dumping of refuse along Oshodi-Apapa Expressway; and 

    -Abuse on the council staff, resisting them from performing their legitimate duties in the Market. 

    Gawat has also stated that the market has since reopened on April 3, and normal activities have resumed.

    Verdict

    The claim that Igbo traders were locked out of the Akorede market for no reason is false. Traders were locked out for violating the market rules and regulations.

  • FACT CHECK: Did APC vow to form an interim government if PDP rigged 2015 elections?

    FACT CHECK: Did APC vow to form an interim government if PDP rigged 2015 elections?

    A broadcast journalist with a national television claimed that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) vowed to form an interim government against the then-ruling party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), if the 2015 general elections were rigged. 

    This is coming on the heels of agitations that have since trailed the outcome of the 2023 presidential election and the public warning issued by the Department of States Service (DSS) on the plots for an interim government.

    While grilling a member of the APC over the emerging issue of an interim government as part of the post-election developments, the journalist said; 

    “In 2015, the APC said that if the elections then were rigged by the PDP that it would form an interim government. In 2014, and 2015, they kept on saying that,” the journalist said.

    Muhammadu Buhari of the APC, won the 2015 general elections to unseat the then-incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, who was seeking re-election at the time.  

    Claim: APC vowed to form an interim government if PDP rigged the 2015 elections.

    Verification 

    The CDD Election War Room can confirm that the claim is misleading.

    Findings revealed that the APC ahead of the 2015 general elections said that it would form a parallel government if the elections were rigged in favour of the PDP.

    The leadership of the APC released a statement in November 2014, saying it would not recognize the outcome of the 2015 elections if they were rigged, and would go ahead to form a parallel government.

    John Odigie-Oyegun, who was APC national chairman at the time, had earlier said the same in August 2014.

    However, an interim government is not the same as a parallel government. An interim government is a provisional form of government that operates temporarily until the country settles on a stable or permanent government. 

    A parallel government is a form of an alternative — often rebellious — government that runs alongside the main government in power. It is a treasonable offense, according to section 37 of Nigeria’s criminal code.

    Nigeria had an interim government in 1993, which was led by Ernest Shonekan. In 1998/1999 Abdulsalami Abubakar led a transitional government.

    The closest any part of Nigeria has experienced to a parallel government is Boko Haram terrorists attempting to run a state within a state by hoisting flags and taking over villages and towns in the northeast.

    Nigeria has had no record of a full-fledged parallel government.

    Verdict

    The claim that APC vowed to form an interim government if the PDP rigged the 2015 elections, is misleading. The CDD Election War Room, however, found that the party threatened to form a parallel government, which is not the same, but often worse than an interim government.

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  • FACT CHECK: Was Datti Ahmed removed from the Nigerian Senate over election rigging?

    FACT CHECK: Was Datti Ahmed removed from the Nigerian Senate over election rigging?

    Ayo Oyalowo, a member of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), has claimed that Datti Baba-Ahmed, Labour Party’s (LP) vice presidential candidate for the 2023 presidential election, was removed from the Nigerian Senate over election rigging.

    Oyalowo stated this during an interview on Arise News, where he was asked to react to the agitations by opposition parties protesting the emergence of Bola Tinubu as the president-elect.

    “This same Datti, his deputy that has been making noise all over the place, rigged an election to become a Senator. He was removed by the court. So, if the court did that, they can still do it again.” 

    Oyalowo said this as he called on Peter Obi, the LP presidential candidate, and other aggrieved parties, to approach the court over their dissatisfaction at the outcome of the February 25 polls.

    Claim: Datti Ahmed was removed from the Nigerian Senate over election rigging.

    Verification

    Findings revealed that in 2011, Datti Ahmed was elected into the Nigerian Senate to represent Kaduna North Senatorial District on the platform of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC).

    Following the outcome of the election, Datti Ahmed’s major rival, Ahmed Makarfi of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), petitioned the National and State Assembly Election Petition Tribunal in Kaduna state over the conduct of the polls.

    Makarfi, who is a former governor of the state, alleged that there were cases of multiple thumbprinting, ballot stuffing and the use of unsigned and unstamped ballot papers in favour of Ahmed.

    The Tribunal later sacked Ahmed to announce Makarfi as the lawful winner of the election. This was after a recount deducted unsigned and unstamped votes from the total votes of both candidates.

    Ahmed appealed the decision of the tribunal, but the Appeal Court dismissed his case, upholding Makarfi’s victory.

    Verdict

    The CDD Election War Room can confirm that the claim is misleading; while Datti Baba-Ahmed was indeed removed as a result of a rigged election, there is no evidence to show that he rigged the election.

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  • Candidate vs Aspirant: Here is all you need to know

    Candidate vs Aspirant: Here is all you need to know

    The terms “aspirant” and “candidate” have been misconstrued by many individuals due to their similarities. Oftentimes, Nigerians don’t know that a candidate and an aspirant running for office are distinct, and is incorrect to use them interchangeably.

    This article explains the meaning of the two words in the context of Nigeria’s election.

    Who is an aspirant?

    Aspirant is from the word “aspire.”  An individual who aspires, such as one who seeks or wishes for a position, career, advancement, or status, is referred to as an “aspirant.”

    For instance, Bola Tinubu was an aspirant before the APC approved him to run for president. Another instance is Atiku Abubakar, who was an aspirant under the Social Democratic Party in 1993 but lost the party’s primary election and thus could not be the party’s candidate.

    Who is a candidate?

    A candidate, or nominee, is the prospective recipient of an award or honour. It is also a person seeking or being considered for some kind of position, for example, an elected office.

    In this case, a candidate selection procedure occurs. For instance, Bola Tinubu became a candidate, that is, the APC candidate or nominee of the party after the APC cleared him to run for president. Another instance is Atiku Abubakar, who was the presidential candidate of the Action Congress after winning the party primary election in 2007.

    According to the party’s rules and any relevant election laws, the selection (i.e., nomination) of the party is usually made through one or more primary elections.

    How do aspirants become candidates?

    The new electoral act provides that an aspirant seeking to run for a political office through the platform of a political party shall face the party’s screening and be selected by indirect primary, direct primary, or through the consensus method.

    1. Direct Primary: All members of the party will vote for the aspirant of their choice, and the winner will become the party’s candidate to compete in the general election against other political parties.
    2. Indirect Primary: Some party members, known as delegates, will elect one aspirant among others contesting for the same position or office through the same political party.
    3. Consensus Method: This is when the whole party decides that one aspirant will go and represent the party in the general election.

    Who are delegates & how are they picked?

    There are two types of delegates: ad hoc and statutory.

    1. The ad hoc delegates are picked by holding congresses in the wards across the country. The process involves party members choosing people (representatives) who will vote on their behalf in the party’s governorship or presidential primary election. The national executive committees (NECs)—the high organs—are to determine the mode in which these congresses are to be held. After the delegates are selected, a convention will be held to enable them to decide on who will fly the party’s gubernatorial or presidential flag.
    2. The statutory delegates, also known as automatic delegates, are party members who are current and serving public office holders. They include current and former presidents, governors, and deputy governors, as well as members of the national and state houses of assembly.

    The winner at this primary election shall be the one nominated by the political party to compete in the general election, and then this winner shall be called the party’s candidate or nominee. The candidate nominated must meet the basic qualification requirements as stipulated by the Constitution, the Electoral Act, and INEC’s guidelines.

    Candidates are called “incumbents” if they are already serving in the office for which they seek re-election. If they are seeking to replace an incumbent, they are called “opposition.”

    What the Electoral Act and the Constitution Says

    Both the Electoral Act and the Constitution require public servants and political appointees to resign before contesting an election. 

    Distinctively, the Electoral Act explains that political appointees who intend to be voting delegates or stand as aspirants for elective positions in a primary election shall, first of all, resign their appointments. For a political appointee, the failure to resign an appointment before voting as a delegate or standing as an aspirant in a primary election is a violation of the electoral act and further renders the primary election null, void, and illegal.

    On the other hand, the 1999 Constitution as amended outlines in sections, 66(1)f, 107(1)f, 137(1)g, and 182(1)g that a candidate can resign 30 days before the conduct of the election if they are public service employees.

    This distinction between these two laws has caused various interpretations.  One argument that often erupts is the distinction between political appointees and holders of public office.

    In contrast, is a political appointee not in public service? Are they not under public service employment despite being hand-picked?

    The court 

    In 2022, a Federal High Court in Umuahia ruled that the contentious Section 84 (12) of the Electoral Act 2022 was null and void.

    In a judgment delivered by Justice Evelyn Anyadike, the court held that the section was unconstitutional, invalid, illegal, null, void, and of no effect whatsoever and ought to be struck down as it cannot stand when it violates the clear provisions of the Constitution.

    The Court of Appeal in Abuja voided the judgment of the Federal High Court in Umuahia on the basis of lacking jurisdiction. Although the appellate court essentially validated the controversial law, it said it would have ruled otherwise if the main suit had been properly brought before it.

    Candidates Resignation 

    At the start of the election season, many political appointees expressed their interest in vying for a political office but also planned to retain their current status.

    This led to a series of legal suits from these aspirants, one of which was brought by the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF), Abubakar Malami. 

    Along the line, aspirants like Abubakar Malami, Sen. Chris Ngige (minister for labour), and Godwin Emiefele (the Central Bank governor) thought their current positions were worth the while rather than chasing what wasn’t certain.

    Hence, they buried their political ambitions and continued to serve in the Federal Executive Council.

    Recently, the minister of state for petroleum, Timipre Sylva, has been the subject of major discussion because he showed interest to contest for the All Progressives Congress (APC) gubernatorial ticket in Bayelsa state.

    It was however disclosed by Bashir Ahmad, special assistant to the president on digital communications, that Sylva resigned to pursue his governorship ambition.

    Conclusively, the immediate former minister for petroleum remains an aspirant until he wins the APC gubernatorial ticket in Bayelsa. Should he win the primary election, he will be the candidate of the party. However, if he loses the primary election, he remains an aspirant.

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  • FACT CHECK: How true are Bola Tinubu’s post-election claims?

    FACT CHECK: How true are Bola Tinubu’s post-election claims?

    Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), during an interview with Channels TV on the state of the February 25, 2023 election, made some controversial claims.

    He was asked if Nigerians are to vote for him based on what he has done in Lagos or what his party (APC ) has done with Nigeria.

    In his response, he distanced himself from the party and stated that his track record and capacity should speak for him and document the history of his performance.

    Speaking about the economy of Lagos state, Tinubu claimed that “Lagos state has moved from the down, below number 102 or so then to the 3rd, 2nd, 5th largest economy in Africa”.

    He also made another claim when comparing the economy of Nigeria in 2015 managed by PDP to the economy of Nigeria in 2019 managed by the APC.

    “What was the situation of the economy in 2015? The oil prices were up. We were producing 2Billion barrels of crude oil a day. What is the situation now in 2019, we have a very big dip in the oil prices,” he said.

    “The production went to 900 barrels from 2000 and this is a monolithic economy that depends on the oil production.”

    CDD Election War Room looked into these claims, and here is what we found:

    CLAIM I: Lagos state has moved from the number 102 or so to the 3rd, 2nd, 5th largest economy in Africa

    Verification

    Bola Tinubu’s running mate, Kashim Shettima, had also made similar claims on January 1, 2023, when invited to the Fashin Baki Hausa chat hosted by journalist, Bulama Bukarti.

    In the interview, he said the aftermath of Tinubu’s rule in Lagos is that the former governor successfully transformed Lagos into the fifth-largest economy in Africa.

    There have also been claims of Lagos being the third-largest economy in Africa. The CDD Election War Room had checked these claims and found that Lagos state is not Africa’s fifth largest economy but Lagos is at best the eighth largest economy on the continent.

    CLAIM II: Crude oil production went to 900 barrels in 2019 from 2,000 barrels in 2015.

    VERIFICATIONS:

    In verifying the claim, CDD Election War Room sourced data from the Organization of Oil Producing Countries (OPEC) on Nigeria’s crude oil production in 2015 and 2019.

    Data from OPEC and visualized by Statista, Trading Economy, and Census and Economic Information Center (CEIC) Data, reputable global data analysis platforms, showed that Nigeria’s average annual production of crude oil in 2015 hovered around 1,874,000 barrels per day and in 2019 hovered around 1,870,000 barrel per day. This does not show a significant drop as Tinubu claimed.

    According to CEIC data visualization, Nigeria’s crude oil production was an average of 1,707,000 barrels/day in 2015 while in 2019, there was an average production of 1,785,000 barrels per day.

    According to Trading View data visualization, Nigeria’s crude oil production was an average of 1,717,000 barrels/day in 2015 while in 2019, there was an average oil production of 1,726,000 barrels/day.

    Although there is a slight difference in the data visualization by Statista; Nigeria’s crude oil production was an average of 2,199,000 barrels/day in 2015 while in 2019, there was an average oil production of 2,101,000 barrels/day.

    CONCLUSION
    Considering the data by OPEC, Bola Tinubu was right about the drop but the figures he stated were totally incorrect. Also, Lagos state is not the 2nd, 3rd nor is it the 5th largest economy in Africa, but Lagos is the 8th largest economy on the continent.